25 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej
Referee: P. Rzucidlo
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Podbeskidzie 2-1 Stal Rzeszów.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Podbeskidzie, 26% draw, 26% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Podbeskidzie at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Podbeskidzie5%Draw92%Stal Rzeszów3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽V. Krasovskiy
A. Kasperkiewicz
32'
🔁M. Urynowiczout: O. Sewerzynski
46'
57'
🔁S. Pukalaout: E. Wisniowski
57'
🔁W. Brzekout: M. Listkowski
🔁A. Iwanczykout: K. Smolinski
57'
🔁D. Pietraszkiewiczout: B. Martosz
67'
🔁W. Slomkaout: D. Takac
67'
69'
V. Krasovskiy
71'
🔁A. Buksaout: S. Salamon
L. Klisiewicz
73'
🔁L. Klisiewiczout: Y. Shikavka
79'
⚽M. Rakoczy
88'
⚽D. Takacassist: B. Martosz
90'

Line-ups

Podbeskidzie
Coach: Marcin Wlodarski
Stal Rzeszów
Coach: Marek Zub

Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów

Podbeskidzie

I Liga

  • L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź18 October 2026
  • W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026

Stal Rzeszów

I Liga

  • W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
  • L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Podbeskidzie142931720-315
13Stal Rzeszów145361825-718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów

  • 1 September 2026Stal Rzeszów 3–0 PodbeskidzieCup
  • 19 April 2024Stal Rzeszów 2–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
  • 7 October 2023Podbeskidzie 0–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
  • 2 April 2023Podbeskidzie 2–2 Stal RzeszówI Liga
  • 27 August 2022Stal Rzeszów 5–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga
  • 15 August 2020Stal Rzeszów 0–1 PodbeskidzieCup

The result against the call

Podbeskidzie beat Stal Rzeszów 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Podbeskidzie at 48%. The goals: V. Krasovskiy 22' for Stal Rzeszów, M. Rakoczy 88' for Podbeskidzie, D. Takac 90' for Podbeskidzie.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Podbeskidzie a 28.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.3% after a win, 29.5% after a draw, 36.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.3%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.

For Stal Rzeszów the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.4% going in: 7.8% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 18.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.5%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Podbeskidzie v Stal Rzeszów has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Podbeskidzie's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Podbeskidzie win48%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Stal Rzeszów win26%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.