26 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź I Liga prediction & result

Referee: M. Szczerbowicz
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Warta Poznań 0-1 ŁKS Łódź.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Warta Poznań, 27% draw, 28% ŁKS Łódź — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Warta Poznań at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Warta Poznań0%Draw5%ŁKS Łódź95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁K. Kalataout: D. Avdeev
54'
🔁K. Lysiakout: F. Rejczyk
54'
60'
A. Craciun
63'
🔁M. Wysokinskiout: I. Strzalek
63'
🔁S. Karasinskiout: D. Sokol
65'
J. Keiblinger
🔁K. Szymanekout: A. Wolczek
68'
72'
🔁K. Hinokioout: K. Prusinski
73'
🔁L. Szczygielout: K. Nowakowski
77'
D. Sokol
A. Najemski
80'
🔁A. Najemskiout: K. Lepczynski
82'
82'
🔁A. Arasaout: F. Piasecki
84'
⚽D. Sokolassist: J. Keiblinger

Line-ups

Warta Poznań
Coach: Maciej Tokarczyk
ŁKS Łódź
Coach: Grzegorz Szoka

Form going into Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź

Warta Poznań

I Liga

  • W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026

ŁKS Łódź

I Liga

  • W1-0Podbeskidzie18 October 2026
  • L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Warta Poznań146172020019
2ŁKS Łódź147431712+525

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź

  • 7 March 2025ŁKS Łódź 3–1 Warta PoznańI Liga
  • 20 August 2024Warta Poznań 2–4 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
  • 11 March 2024Warta Poznań 0–1 ŁKS ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 1 September 2023ŁKS Łódź 0–2 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
  • 16 March 2019ŁKS Łódź 3–0 Warta PoznańI Liga
  • 25 August 2018Warta Poznań 0–2 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga

The result against the call

ŁKS Łódź won 1–0 at Warta Poznań. The model had leaned towards a win for Warta Poznań at 45% and given a win for ŁKS Łódź 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: D. Sokol 84' for ŁKS Łódź.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Warta Poznań a 26.1% chance to finish in the top two: 31.0% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 18.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.4%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.

For ŁKS Łódź the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 17.9% going in: 24.5% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 14.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.5%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.