Sunderland vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-0 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Sunderland, 29% draw, 41% Leeds — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Leeds at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Leeds
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 32T. HumeD
- 20N. MukieleD
- 13L. O'NienD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 11C. RiggM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 31M. EllborgG
- 19H. DiarraM
- 15O. AldereteD
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 6D. MethalieD
- 50J. AnguloF
- 7C. TalbiF
- 39M. FofanaF
- 57Timur TuterovF
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 15J. BijolD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 10H. WilsonM
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 16M. ZettererG
- 26M. BardD
- 18A. StachM
- 50Alfie CresswellM
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 44I. GruevM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 19N. OkaforF
- 23J. BahoyaF
Form going into Sunderland vs Leeds
Sunderland
Premier League
- L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
Leeds
Premier League
- D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Sunderland
Leeds and Sunderland have met 7 times in the records we hold, Leeds has won 2 of them to Sunderland's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Sunderland on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Sunderland | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueSunderland 0–0 Leeds - 30 Jul 2026
Premier League - Summer SeriesSunderland 0–1 Leeds - 3 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueLeeds 0–1 Sunderland - 28 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueSunderland 1–1 Leeds - 17 Feb 2025
ChampionshipLeeds 2–1 Sunderland - 4 Oct 2024
ChampionshipSunderland 2–2 Leeds - 9 Apr 2024
ChampionshipLeeds 0–0 Sunderland
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Leeds' attack rates 10% above Sunderland's, and Leeds concede 22% fewer than Sunderland. That gives Leeds the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 0.89 | 0.78 |
| Sunderland | 0.81 | 1.00 |
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Leeds
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sunderland and Leeds drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Leeds at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.99–0.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sunderland a 40.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.5% after a win, 39.7% after a draw, 44.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 39.7%.
For Leeds the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.5% going in: 13.6% after a win, 10.0% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.0%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.