Manchester United vs Bournemouth Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Manchester United, 23% draw, 23% Bournemouth — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester United at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 15L. YoroD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 26A. HeavenD
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 20C. BalebaM
- 16A. DialloM
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 7M. MountM
- 19B. MbeumoF
- 31S. LaceyF
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 4M. de LigtD
- 12K. DarlowG
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 39T. FletcherM
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12T. AdamsM
- 4L. CookM
- 37RayanM
- 19J. KluivertM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 6J. SolerD
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 7D. BrooksM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 11B. DoakF
- 21A. AdliF
- 22E. KroupiF
Form going into Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Manchester United
Premier League
- D1-1away to Leeds18 October 2026
- D1-1Tottenham10 October 2026
Bournemouth
Premier League
- W2-0Sunderland18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Manchester United
Bournemouth and Manchester United have met 7 times in the records we hold, Bournemouth has won 2 of them to Manchester United's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
Bournemouth won the last one 3–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 13 |
| Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 29 goals, an average of 4.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueManchester United 0–3 Bournemouth - 20 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–2 Manchester United - 15 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueManchester United 4–4 Bournemouth - 31 Jul 2025
Premier League - Summer SeriesManchester United 4–1 Bournemouth - 27 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 1–1 Manchester United - 22 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueManchester United 0–3 Bournemouth - 13 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–2 Manchester United
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Manchester United's attack rates 15% above Bournemouth's, and Bournemouth concede 13% fewer than Manchester United. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Manchester United | 1.34 | 1.02 |
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Bournemouth
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes42
- B. Mbeumo40
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Evanilson54
- M. Tavernier50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bournemouth won 3–0 at Manchester United. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester United at 54% and given a win for Bournemouth 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha 38' for Bournemouth, Marcus Tavernier 43' for Bournemouth, Francisco Evanilson 71' for Bournemouth. On expected goals it finished 1.17–2.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Manchester United a 26.9% chance to finish in the top four: 29.3% after a win, 23.5% after a draw, 21.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.1%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
For Bournemouth the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.6% going in: 7.6% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.6%, 4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.