Valenciennes vs Orleans Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Valenciennes 2-2 Orleans.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Valenciennes, 27% draw, 31% Orleans — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Valenciennes at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 40J. Lacombe
- 22D. Goprou
- 6M. Zogba
- 5B. Passi
- 20A. Meite
- 28A. Wahib
- 19T. Marechal
- 25S. Belloumou
- 8M. Rouai
- 10D. Diomande
- 9J. Ndiaye
- 1J. Louchet
- 21V. Marcel
- 26L. Boiteau
- 33L. Fouble
- 27Z. Amir
- 18G. Courtet
- 11R. Ekra
- 1F. Faham
- 23J. Koembo
- 27M. Lemaitre
- 24I. Drame
- 5M. Sylla
- 3T. Ndicka Matam
- 10G. Khous
- 6H. Aubourg
- 20B. Dali-Amar
- 19R. Legendre
- 26A. Ribeiro
- 40S. Moussima
- 12M. Guiheneuf
- 29J. Obiang
- 14Y. Aouladzian
- 7M. Diako
- 21L. Raillot
- 9M. Prunier
Form going into Valenciennes vs Orleans
Valenciennes
Ligue 3
- L1-2away to Cannes31 October 2026
- D1-1Amiens17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Versailles3 October 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026
Orleans
Ligue 3
- D1-1Villefranche31 October 2026
- L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
What these results say
- Valenciennes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Valenciennes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Valenciennes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Orleans did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Orleans scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Valenciennes | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valenciennes vs Orleans
- 31 January 2026Valenciennes 0–1 OrleansLigue 3
- 22 August 2025Orleans 2–1 ValenciennesLigue 3
- 24 January 2025Valenciennes 1–0 OrleansLigue 3
- 9 October 2024Orleans 4–1 ValenciennesLigue 3
- 22 November 2019Orleans 0–1 ValenciennesLigue 2
The result against the call
Valenciennes and Orleans drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Valenciennes at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Legendre 9' for Orleans, M. Lemaitre 38' for Orleans, R. Ekra 65' for Valenciennes, J. Ndiaye (penalty) 72' for Valenciennes. Sent off: D. Goprou (Valenciennes) 90+5'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valenciennes a 21.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.1% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.4%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For Orleans the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.3% going in: 11.2% after a win, 18.4% after a draw, 19.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.4%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.