Bolton vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 2-3 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bolton, 29% draw, 30% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bolton at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Bristol City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BonhamG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 3C. Forino-JosephD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 4X. SimonsM
- 8J. SheehanM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 17A. ItoM
- 11T. GaleM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 9T. BairF
- 5L. BruntD
- 7K. DongF
- 14A. FamewoD
- 23D. HarringtonG
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 27Luca StephensonM
- 12D. WatsonM
- 35Max LottF
- 40B. CollinsG
- 19G. TannerD
- 15L. McNallyD
- 2L. EissatD
- 3C. PringD
- 12J. KnightM
- 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
- 21Rio CardinesM
- 23D. BallardM
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 9L. TolajF
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 4A. RandellM
- 1S. TickleG
- 10S. TwineM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 11S. BellF
- 5R. AtkinsonD
Form going into Bolton vs Bristol City
Bolton
Championship
- L1-5Middlesbrough23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
Bristol City
Championship
- D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
- L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Bristol City
Bolton and Bristol City have met 7 times in the records we hold, Bristol City has won 5 of them to Bolton's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bristol City won the last one 3–2 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| Bristol City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
ChampionshipBolton 2–3 Bristol City - 25 Jan 2019
FA CupBristol City 2–1 Bolton - 12 Jan 2019
ChampionshipBristol City 2–1 Bolton - 11 Aug 2018
ChampionshipBolton 2–2 Bristol City - 2 Feb 2018
ChampionshipBolton 1–0 Bristol City - 26 Sep 2017
ChampionshipBristol City 2–0 Bolton - 19 Mar 2016
ChampionshipBristol City 6–0 Bolton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bolton's attack rates 15% above Bristol City's, and Bristol City concede 14% fewer than Bolton. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 0.70 | 1.67 |
| Bristol City | 0.61 | 1.44 |
Leading scorers: Bolton and Bristol City
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bristol City won 3–2 at Bolton. The model had leaned towards a win for Bolton at 41% and given a win for Bristol City 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dominic Ballard 13' for Bristol City, Josh Sheehan 16' for Bolton, Sam Dalby 57' for Bolton, Sam Bellis 84' for Bristol City, Scott Twine 90+3' for Bristol City. On expected goals it finished 1.28–3.16.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bolton a 10.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.4% after a win, 10.6% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
For Bristol City the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.7% going in: 6.7% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bolton v Bristol City has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Bolton's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Bolton win41%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Bristol City win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.