24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Partick vs Stenhousemuir Championship prediction & result

Firhill Stadium, Glasgow
Referee: C. Scott
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Partick 3-0 Stenhousemuir.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Partick, 31% draw, 27% Stenhousemuir — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Partick at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Partick99%Draw1%Stenhousemuir0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Hendersonassist: T. Watt
7'
⚽E. Hendersonassist: T. Watt
25'
46'
🔁R. Meechanout: L. Lloyd
⚽E. Hendersonassist: S. Drozd
56'
61'
🔁A. Shinnieout: G. Stevenson
61'
🔁F. Robsonout: M. Gillies
🔁E. Hendersonout: A. Fitzpatrick
63'
🔁T. Wattout: A. Samuel
63'
71'
🔁L. Hodgkissout: D. Carrick
🔁O. Smythout: R. Crawford
72'
🔁B. Stanwayout: T. Letsosa
72'
74'
L. Grant
77'
🔁L. Grantout: G. Buchanan
🔁E. Ingramout: C. Logan
82'

Line-ups

Partick
  • 12L. McFarlane
  • 17E. Ingram
  • 5L. Ashcroft
  • 20D. O'Reilly
  • 3P. Reading
  • 8O. Smyth
  • 6B. Dempsey
  • 7S. Drozd
  • 26B. Stanway
  • 10E. Henderson
  • 32T. Watt
Substitutes
  • 1L. Budinauckas
  • 2C. Logan
  • 9A. Samuel
  • 11G. Mackay-Steven
  • 14R. Crawford
  • 21A. Fitzpatrick
  • 24B. McPherson
  • 34S. Docherty
  • 64T. Letsosa
Stenhousemuir
  • 1D. Jamieson
  • 24L. Grant
  • 5S. Young
  • 19S. Bright
  • 2R. Meechan
  • 17M. Anderson
  • 8F. Robson
  • 28C. Penman
  • 7E. O'Reilly
  • 21L. Hodgkiss
  • 10A. Shinnie
Substitutes
  • 4G. Buchanan
  • 11L. O'Donnell
  • 15D. Carrick
  • 38G. Stevenson
  • 34R. Hemfrey
  • 22H. Kargbo
  • 36L. Lloyd
  • 37O. MacIntyre
  • 39M. Gillies
Coach: Marvin Bartley

Form going into Partick vs Stenhousemuir

Partick

Championship

  • D1-1away to Dunfermline20 October 2026

Stenhousemuir

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Raith Rovers17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Inverness CT10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Partick15942219+1231
2Stenhousemuir158251816+226

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Partick vs Stenhousemuir

  • 15 September 2026Stenhousemuir 1–0 PartickChampionship
  • 21 July 2026Partick 2–2 StenhousemuirLeague Cup
  • 9 July 2022Stenhousemuir 1–2 PartickLeague Cup
  • 17 July 2021Stenhousemuir 1–2 PartickLeague Cup
  • 16 November 2019Stenhousemuir 1–4 PartickChallenge Cup
  • 14 July 2018Stenhousemuir 0–2 PartickLeague Cup

The result against the call

Partick beat Stenhousemuir 3–0. The model had made a win for Partick its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Henderson 7' for Partick, E. Henderson 25' for Partick, E. Henderson 56' for Partick.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Partick a 31.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 37.3% after a win, 28.9% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.3%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.

For Stenhousemuir the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 43.5% going in: 54.1% after a win, 44.5% after a draw, 37.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.0%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Partick v Stenhousemuir has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Stenhousemuir's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Partick win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Stenhousemuir win27%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.