24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Queen's Park vs Dunfermline Championship prediction & result

The City Stadium, Glasgow
Referee: C. Steven
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Queen's Park 0-1 Dunfermline.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Queen's Park, 29% draw, 43% Dunfermline — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunfermline at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Queen's Park0%Draw3%Dunfermline97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Martin
15'
18'
⚽R. MacLeodassist: A. Tod
42'
R. Fraser
🔁M. Ruthout: C. Smith
57'
🔁L. Stewartout: T. McDonnell
58'
68'
O. Adams
74'
🔁J. Cooperout: C. Morrison
74'
🔁O. Adamsout: O. Shaw
🔁S. Martinout: N. Todorov
83'
88'
🔁A. Oyirwothout: C. Gilmour
88'
🔁A. Todout: O. Thomas
T. McDonnell
90'

Line-ups

Queen's Park
  • 1D. Mitchell
  • 12C. Pignatiello
  • 2Z. Mauchin
  • 5R. Lamie
  • 22M. Shiels
  • 8S. Martin
  • 24A. McCallion
  • 11A. Connolly
  • 21R. McLean
  • 14L. Stewart
  • 9M. Ruth
Substitutes
  • 31M. Sliwinski
  • 7L. Longridge
  • 17T. McDonnell
  • 18C. Goldie
  • 20K. Rodger
  • 25Z. Lawson
  • 26B. Brannan
  • 27C. Smith
  • 77N. Todorov
Coach: Sean Crighton
Dunfermline
  • 1A. Oxborough
  • 24D. Lobban
  • 6N. Abdulai
  • 25A. Donnelly
  • 47R. Fraser
  • 19A. Oyirwoth
  • 14A. Amade
  • 33J. Cooper
  • 16R. MacLeod
  • 99O. Adams
  • 26A. Tod
Substitutes
  • 12M. Dibaga
  • 3J. Tod
  • 7C. Morrison
  • 8C. Gilmour
  • 10O. Shaw
  • 11S. Kearney
  • 18K. Corbally
  • 22K. Bray
  • 17O. Thomas
Coach: Neil Lennon

Form going into Queen's Park vs Dunfermline

Queen's Park

Championship

  • L0-2away to Morton17 October 2026

Dunfermline

Championship

  • D1-1Partick20 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Queen's Park152112825-177
4Dunfermline14671157+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Queen's Park vs Dunfermline

  • 12 September 2026Dunfermline 2–0 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 25 April 2026Queen's Park 0–2 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 28 February 2026Dunfermline 1–0 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 13 December 2025Queen's Park 1–1 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 4 October 2025Dunfermline 0–0 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 12 April 2025Queen's Park 0–1 DunfermlineChampionship

The result against the call

Dunfermline won 1–0 at Queen's Park. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dunfermline at 43%. The goal: R. MacLeod 18' for Dunfermline.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Queen's Park a 71.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 65.6% after a win, 72.1% after a draw, 75.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.5%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Dunfermline the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 38.4% going in: 43.1% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 32.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.1%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Queen's Park v Dunfermline has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 21% / 26% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Dunfermline's chance of winning, down 10 points.

  1. Queen's Park win28%▲ +7
  2. Draw29%▲ +3
  3. Dunfermline win43%▼ −10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.