24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT Championship prediction & result

Kirkcaldy
Referee: C. Stirling
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Raith Rovers 0-2 Inverness CT.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Raith Rovers, 26% draw, 26% Inverness CT — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Raith Rovers at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raith Rovers0%Draw1%Inverness CT99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽A. Stewartassist: L. Stewart
22'
R. MacGregor
37'
⚽A. Stewartassist: L. Stewart
J. Rowe
44'
🔁A. Lyallout: K. Montagu
56'
64'
🔁L. Soleout: R. Duncan
S. Brown
70'
🔁J. Roweout: R. Millen
71'
77'
🔁L. Stewartout: D. E. Osong
L. Stevenson
89'

Line-ups

Raith Rovers
  • 1J. Rae
  • 2J. Rowe
  • 6J. Baird
  • 4P. Hanlon
  • 16L. Stevenson
  • 20S. Brown
  • 8K. Turner
  • 18P. McMullan
  • 7A. Lyall
  • 15S. Tiffoney
  • 9G. Oakley
Substitutes
  • 13L. Armstrong
  • 3Z. Delaney
  • 5C. Fordyce
  • 22R. Millen
  • 25K. Montagu
Coach: Paul Hanlon
Inverness CT
  • 1R. Munro
  • 2C. MacLeod
  • 5R. Savage
  • 15K. Smith
  • 4G. Shinnie
  • 7P. Allan
  • 26R. MacGregor
  • 17L. Sole
  • 35A. Stewart
  • 9L. Stewart
  • 36A. Bavidge
Substitutes
  • 21L. Ross
  • 3N. Boutin
  • 10D. Wotherspoon
  • 12D. MacKay
  • 16R. Duncan
  • 19M. Bates
  • 20D. E. Osong
Coach: Scott Kellacher

Form going into Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT

Raith Rovers

Championship

  • D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026

Inverness CT

Championship

  • W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Raith Rovers157442112+925
6Inverness CT155552020020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT

  • 5 September 2026Inverness CT 0–2 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 5 April 2026Raith Rovers 4–1 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
  • 26 July 2025Raith Rovers 5–1 Inverness CTLeague Cup
  • 6 July 2024Raith Rovers 1–0 Inverness CTFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 April 2024Inverness CT 0–1 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 27 January 2024Raith Rovers 2–3 Inverness CTChampionship

The result against the call

Inverness CT won 2–0 at Raith Rovers. The model had leaned towards a win for Raith Rovers at 48% and given a win for Inverness CT 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Stewart 14' for Inverness CT, A. Stewart 37' for Inverness CT.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Raith Rovers a 80.0% chance to finish in the top four: 83.8% after a win, 78.6% after a draw, 75.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.2%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

For Inverness CT the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 50.1% going in: 58.3% after a win, 51.2% after a draw, 45.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.3%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Raith Rovers v Inverness CT has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 50% / 25% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Raith Rovers's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Raith Rovers win48%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Inverness CT win26%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.