Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: Velež 0-0 Siroki Brijeg.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Velež, 27% draw, 30% Siroki Brijeg — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Velež at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
Velež
Premijer Liga
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
Siroki Brijeg
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Velež | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
- 21 April 2026Velež 3–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 15 February 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–0 VeležPremijer Liga
- 11 February 2026Velež 2–1 Siroki BrijegCup
- 25 October 2025Velež 1–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 10 August 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–3 VeležPremijer Liga
- 28 March 2025Siroki Brijeg 2–5 VeležPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Velež and Siroki Brijeg
Velež
GoalsAssists
- N. Stojanović11
Siroki Brijeg
GoalsAssists
- M. Matić11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velež and Siroki Brijeg drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Velež at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Velež a 41.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.9% after a win, 42.6% after a draw, 49.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 42.6%, 1 points higher than before the match.
For Siroki Brijeg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 35.8% going in: 26.6% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 41.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 35.4%.
Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Velež v Siroki Brijeg has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Velež's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Velež win43%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Siroki Brijeg win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.