3 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Birmingham vs Millwall Championship prediction & result

St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Referee: David Webb
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Birmingham 3-0 Millwall.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Birmingham, 28% draw, 26% Millwall — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Birmingham at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Birmingham99%Draw1%Millwall0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alex Cochrane
1'
⚽Max Birdassist: Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
16'
⚽Jay Stansfieldassist: Max Bird
29'
45'
🔁Mihailo·Ivanovicout: Mark Sykes
45'
🔁Zak Sturgeout: D. Kelly
55'
Jordi Osei-Tutu
Alex Cochrane
56'
71'
🔁Lyndon Dykesout: Josh Coburn
71'
🔁Kyrell Lisbieout: Romain Esse
🔁Liam Millarout: Demarai Gray
73'
🔁Ethan Lairdout: Bright Osayi-Samuel
73'
🔁Patrick Robertsout: Carlos Vicente
73'
🔁Max Birdout: Taylor·Gardner Hickman
80'
🔁Jay Stansfieldout: Luis Vasquez
86'
86'
🔁Derek Mazou Sackoout: Yanis Ali Issoufou

Match stats — Birmingham vs Millwall

55%Possession45%
19Shots15
8On target2
6Corners2
1.23xG0.93

Goals against chances

Birmingham3 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth
Millwall0 from 0.93 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 16P. RobertsM
  • 28J. StansfieldM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 18M. BirdF
Substitutes
  • 3L. BuchananD
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
  • 10D. GrayF
  • 30Bradley MayoG
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 32L. VázquezF
  • 7Carlos VicenteF
  • 11S. WrightF
Coach: C. Davies
Millwall 4-4-2
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 22K. LisbieM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 25L. CundleM
  • 13L. DykesF
  • 9M. IvanovićF
Substitutes
  • 7T. ArconteF
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 23D. BatthD
  • 19J. CoburnF
  • 11R. EsseM
  • 35Y. IssoufouF
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 41G. EvansG
Coach: A. Neil

Form going into Birmingham vs Millwall

Birmingham

Championship

  • W3-1away to Lincoln31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cardiff24 October 2026
  • W3-0QPR17 October 2026

Millwall

Championship

  • W4-1Derby31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Portsmouth24 October 2026
  • D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Birmingham158522814+1429
16Millwall155372327-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Millwall

Birmingham and Millwall have met 7 times in the records we hold, Birmingham has won 3 of them to Millwall's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

Birmingham won the last one 3–0 on 3 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Birmingham32295
Millwall22359

Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 3 Nov 2026
    Championship    Birmingham 3–0 Millwall
  • 25 Feb 2026
    Championship    Millwall 3–0 Birmingham
  • 4 Nov 2025
    Championship    Birmingham 4–0 Millwall
  • 9 Mar 2024
    Championship    Millwall 1–0 Birmingham
  • 2 Sep 2023
    Championship    Birmingham 1–1 Millwall
  • 18 Apr 2023
    Championship    Millwall 0–1 Birmingham
  • 2 Nov 2022
    Championship    Birmingham 0–0 Millwall

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Birmingham's attack rates 9% above Millwall's, and Birmingham concede 25% fewer than Millwall. That gives Birmingham the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Birmingham0.831.03
Millwall0.761.37

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Birmingham and Millwall

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • A. Priske61
  • L. Millar43

Millwall

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham beat Millwall 3–0. The model had made a win for Birmingham its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alex Cochrane 1' for Birmingham, Max Bird 16' for Birmingham, Jay Stansfield 29' for Birmingham. On expected goals it finished 1.23–0.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Birmingham a 20.8% chance to finish in the top two: 23.3% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.3%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.