Blackburn vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 1-2 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Blackburn, 29% draw, 32% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Blackburn at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Stoke City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22B. TóthG
- 2R. AlebiosuD
- 17H. CarterD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 3H. PickeringD
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 11J. FevrierM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 16S. WhartonD
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 14D. De NeveM
- 30J. GarrettM
- 7A. KargboF
- 23Y. OhashiF
- 1A. PearsG
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 7J. McGlynnM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 21L. BombinoM
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 13J. DevennyF
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 6S. IngelssonM
- 18B. LawalD
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 22J. TchamadeuD
- 43F. AndersonD
Form going into Blackburn vs Stoke City
Blackburn
Championship
- L0-4away to Swansea31 October 2026
- W2-0Wrexham24 October 2026
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
Stoke City
Championship
- W2-0Preston31 October 2026
- D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Stoke City
Blackburn and Stoke City have met 7 times in the records we hold, Stoke City has won 3 of them to Blackburn's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Stoke City won the last one 2–1 on 3 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Stoke City | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Nov 2026
ChampionshipBlackburn 1–2 Stoke City - 11 Apr 2026
ChampionshipStoke City 1–1 Blackburn - 4 Oct 2025
ChampionshipBlackburn 1–1 Stoke City - 12 Mar 2025
ChampionshipStoke City 1–0 Blackburn - 6 Nov 2024
ChampionshipBlackburn 0–2 Stoke City - 10 Feb 2024
ChampionshipBlackburn 3–1 Stoke City - 25 Nov 2023
ChampionshipStoke City 0–3 Blackburn
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Stoke City's attack rates 9% above Blackburn's, and Stoke City concede 7% fewer than Blackburn. That gives Stoke City the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 0.66 | 1.33 |
| Stoke City | 0.72 | 1.24 |
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Stoke City
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Stoke City won 2–1 at Blackburn. The model had leaned towards a win for Blackburn at 39% and given a win for Stoke City 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Mcglynn 43' for Stoke City, Moussa·Baradji (own goal) 68' for Stoke City, Andri Guðjohnsen 87' for Blackburn. On expected goals it finished 1.90–0.99.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.