Santos vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 1-1 Bahia.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Santos, 26% draw, 26% Bahia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Santos at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Bahia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1DiógenesG
- 23RodineiD
- 42João AlencarD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 22Á. BarrealD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 7EvertonM
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 10NeymarM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 45LimaM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 5João SchmidtM
- 34João PauloG
- 30M. TercerosM
- 1RonaldoG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 33David DuarteD
- 4KanuD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 14ErickM
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VélizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 7AdemirF
- 27EveraldoF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 67Wendel SilvaM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 17G. HerreraG
Form going into Santos vs Bahia
Santos
Serie A
- W2-1away to Fluminense18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
Bahia
Serie A
- L0-3Flamengo18 October 2026
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Santos
Bahia and Santos have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 5 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Santos on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Santos | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Serie ASantos 1–1 Bahia - 25 Apr 2026
Serie ABahia 2–2 Santos - 24 Aug 2025
Serie ABahia 2–0 Santos - 6 Apr 2025
Serie ASantos 2–2 Bahia - 18 Sep 2023
Serie ABahia 1–2 Santos - 31 May 2023
Copa Do BrasilBahia 1–1 Santos - 17 May 2023
Copa Do BrasilSantos 0–0 Bahia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Santos concede 3% fewer than Bahia. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Santos and Bahia
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos and Bahia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Santos at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Luciano 39' for Bahia, Luan Peres 90+3' for Santos. Sent off: Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior (Santos) 45'. On expected goals it finished 2.10–1.49.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santos a 3.8% chance to finish in the top four: 5.6% after a win, 1.4% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 1.4%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
For Bahia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.3% going in: 23.7% after a win, 11.7% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.7%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Santos v Bahia has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Santos's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Santos win48%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Bahia win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.