Lincoln vs Southampton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln 1-1 Southampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lincoln, 29% draw, 30% Southampton — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lincoln at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln vs Southampton
Line-ups
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 6R. TowlerD
- 4A. CoubișM
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 3A. ReachM
- 18B. HouseM
- 17R. StreetM
- 34F. DraperF
- 8T. BaylissM
- 20C. ElderD
- 46J. GauciG
- 7R. HackettM
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 26Y. KonakM
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 27C. OgbeneF
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 5J. StephensD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 34WelingtonD
- 4F. DownesM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 23S. EdozieM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 25G. LongG
- 3R. ManningD
- 28D. MubamaF
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
Form going into Lincoln vs Southampton
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026
- L1-3Portsmouth22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Middlesbrough15 August 2026
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
- W5-1Millwall29 August 2026
- W3-1Stoke City22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lincoln scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Southampton scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Southampton.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Southampton
- 20 December 2022Southampton 2–1 LincolnLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Lincoln and Southampton
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lincoln and Southampton drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lincoln at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Welington 44' for Southampton, Mikkel Ladefoged 87' for Lincoln.
How the call on Lincoln v Southampton has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Southampton's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Lincoln win41%▲ +1
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Southampton win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.