5 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

Lincoln vs Southampton Championship prediction & result

LNER stadium, Lincoln
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lincoln 1-1 Southampton.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lincoln, 29% draw, 30% Southampton — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lincoln at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lincoln5%Draw92%Southampton3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Conor McGrandles
43'
44'
⚽Welingtonassist: James Ward-Prowse
C. Cohen
54'
Ivan Varfolomeev
56'
62'
🔁Cyle Larinout: Divin Mubama
63'
🔁Léo Scienzaout: Samuel Edozie
🔁Ivan Varfolomeevout: Yunus Konak
64'
🔁Sonny Bradleyout: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
64'
🔁Robert Nicholas Streetout: Mikkel Ladefoged
64'
F. Draper
75'
🔁Conor McGrandlesout: Tom Bayliss
76'
🔁Ben Houseout: Chiedozie Ogbene
76'
78'
🔁Finn Azazout: Lewis Dobbin
78'
🔁Welingtonout: Ryan Manning
84'
🔁Kuryu Matsukiout: Nathan Wood-Gordon
⚽Mikkel Ladefogedassist: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
87'

Match stats — Lincoln vs Southampton

39%Possession61%
19Shots16
5On target4
4Corners6

Line-ups

Lincoln 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. WickensG
  • 25D. ElereweD
  • 15S. BradleyD
  • 6R. TowlerD
  • 4A. CoubișM
  • 24I. VarfolomeevM
  • 14C. McGrandlesM
  • 3A. ReachM
  • 18B. HouseM
  • 17R. StreetM
  • 34F. DraperF
Substitutes
  • 8T. BaylissM
  • 20C. ElderD
  • 46J. GauciG
  • 7R. HackettM
  • 16D. JefferiesM
  • 26Y. KonakM
  • 11M. LadefogedF
  • 27C. OgbeneF
  • 19I. OlaofeF
Coach: Chris Cohen
Southampton 4-2-3-1
  • 1Daniel PeretzG
  • 14J. BreeD
  • 5J. StephensD
  • 13K. SchlotterbeckD
  • 34WelingtonD
  • 4F. DownesM
  • 30J. Ward-ProwseM
  • 27K. MatsukiM
  • 10F. AzazM
  • 7Léo ScienzaM
  • 9C. LarinF
Substitutes
  • 6Z. AbbottD
  • 26Cameron BraggM
  • 11L. DobbinF
  • 23S. EdozieM
  • 18T. FellowsM
  • 25G. LongG
  • 3R. ManningD
  • 28D. MubamaF
  • 15N. Wood-GordonD
Coach: Tonda Eckert

Form going into Lincoln vs Southampton

Lincoln

  • D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026

Southampton

  • D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
  • W5-1Millwall29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Lincoln732266011
9Southampton7421188+1010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Southampton

  • 5 September 2026Lincoln 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 20 December 2022Southampton 2–1 LincolnLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Lincoln and Southampton

Lincoln

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Southampton

  • C. Larin7 goals
  • F. Azaz3 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.