Burnley vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 1-2 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Burnley, 27% draw, 22% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Burnley at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs Bristol City
Line-ups
- 1M. WeißG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 18H. EkdalD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 22O. SonneD
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 21A. RamseyM
- 5R. HatateM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 30L. CastellF
- 37G. CoudertG
- 99IgorD
- 28H. MejbriM
- 14C. RobertsD
- 1S. TickleG
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 16R. DickieD
- 2L. EissatD
- 3C. PringD
- 12J. KnightM
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 27G. YahM
- 10S. TwineM
- 9L. TolajF
- 14T. HorvatM
- 4A. RandellM
- 19G. TannerD
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 38N. EileD
- 40B. CollinsG
- 23D. BallardF
- 99E. AdebayoF
Form going into Burnley vs Bristol City
Burnley
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
- L1-3away to West Brom23 August 2026
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham22 August 2026
- L0-2Millwall15 August 2026
What these results say
- Burnley did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Burnley conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bristol City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bristol City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs Bristol City
- 29 March 2025Burnley 1–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 23 November 2024Bristol City 0–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 29 April 2023Bristol City 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 17 September 2022Burnley 2–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 28 January 2017Burnley 2–0 Bristol CityFA Cup
Leading scorers: Burnley and Bristol City
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bristol City won 2–1 at Burnley. The model had leaned towards a win for Burnley at 51% and given a win for Bristol City 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Aaron Ramsey 56' for Burnley, Robert Dickie 82' for Bristol City, Yu Hirakawa 90+1' for Bristol City.