1 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Portsmouth vs Derby Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 30% Derby — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portsmouth at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portsmouth0%Draw1%Derby99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽S. Szmodicsassist: B. Clark
51'
S. Langas
59'
🔁R. Brewsterout: L. Salvesen
62'
⚽L. Salvesenassist: O. Fraulo
🔁R. Kavuma McQueenout: L. Brooke-Smith
65'
🔁Mareziout: C. Bishop
66'
T. Devlin
69'
🔁E. Adamsout: R. R. Shein
72'
🔁M. Packout: I. Mohamed
72'
80'
🔁C. Forsythout: R. Nyambe
81'
🔁B. Clarkout: J. Ward
83'
C. Taylor
🔁Z. Swansonout: O. Bailey
85'
86'
🔁R. Hedgesout: M. Johnston
86'
🔁S. Szmodicsout: F. Bilbija

Match stats — Portsmouth vs Derby

65%Possession35%
21Shots8
3On target5
11Corners2

Line-ups

Portsmouth
  • 31D. Bielica
  • 24T. Devlin
  • 2B. Arthur
  • 55M. Dia
  • 22Z. Swanson
  • 7M. Pack
  • 38E. Adams
  • 11A. Kamara
  • 10A. Segecic
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueen
  • 29Marezi
Substitutes
  • 1N. Schmid
  • 5R. Poole
  • 8J. Swift
  • 27O. Bailey
  • 19R. R. Shein
  • 28L. Brooke-Smith
  • 37I. Mohamed
  • 9C. Bishop
  • 34H. Blair
Coach: John Mousinho
Derby
  • 1J. Widell Zetterstrom
  • 6S. Langas
  • 28D. Sanderson
  • 3C. Forsyth
  • 18C. Taylor
  • 29O. Fraulo
  • 20A. Mowatt
  • 26R. Hedges
  • 8B. Clark
  • 10R. Brewster
  • 11S. Szmodics
Substitutes
  • 31J. Vickers
  • 24R. Nyambe
  • 22M. Johnston
  • 37O. Eames
  • 23J. Ward
  • 33C. Blackett-Taylor
  • 13F. Bilbija
  • 19H. Meister
  • 15L. Salvesen
Coach: John Eustace

Form going into Portsmouth vs Derby

Portsmouth

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Lincoln22 August 2026
  • L1-3QPR15 August 2026

Derby

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Swansea29 August 2026
  • D2-2Cardiff22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Portsmouth156452018+222
23Derby152491430-1610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Derby

  • 16 March 2026Portsmouth 0–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 20 December 2025Derby 1–1 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 12 April 2025Portsmouth 2–2 DerbyChampionship
  • 13 December 2024Derby 4–0 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 2 April 2024Portsmouth 2–2 DerbyLeague One

The full Portsmouth vs Derby record →

The result against the call

Derby won 2–0 at Portsmouth. The model had leaned towards a win for Portsmouth at 41% and given a win for Derby 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Szmodics 16' for Derby, L. Salvesen 62' for Derby.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.