1 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Portsmouth vs Derby Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 30% Derby — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Portsmouth at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portsmouth0%Draw1%Derby99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽S. Szmodicsassist: B. Clark
51'
S. Langas
59'
🔁R. Brewsterout: L. Salvesen
62'
⚽L. Salvesenassist: O. Fraulo
🔁R. Kavuma McQueenout: L. Brooke-Smith
65'
🔁Mareziout: C. Bishop
66'
T. Devlin
69'
🔁E. Adamsout: R. R. Shein
72'
🔁M. Packout: I. Mohamed
72'
80'
🔁C. Forsythout: R. Nyambe
81'
🔁B. Clarkout: J. Ward
83'
C. Taylor
🔁Z. Swansonout: O. Bailey
85'
86'
🔁R. Hedgesout: M. Johnston
86'
🔁S. Szmodicsout: F. Bilbija

Match stats — Portsmouth vs Derby

65%Possession35%
21Shots8
3On target5
11Corners2

Line-ups

Portsmouth
  • 31D. Bielica
  • 24T. Devlin
  • 2B. Arthur
  • 55M. Dia
  • 22Z. Swanson
  • 7M. Pack
  • 38E. Adams
  • 11A. Kamara
  • 10A. Segecic
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueen
  • 29Marezi
Substitutes
  • 1N. Schmid
  • 5R. Poole
  • 8J. Swift
  • 27O. Bailey
  • 19R. R. Shein
  • 28L. Brooke-Smith
  • 37I. Mohamed
  • 9C. Bishop
  • 34H. Blair
Coach: John Mousinho
Derby
  • 1J. Widell Zetterstrom
  • 6S. Langas
  • 28D. Sanderson
  • 3C. Forsyth
  • 18C. Taylor
  • 29O. Fraulo
  • 20A. Mowatt
  • 26R. Hedges
  • 8B. Clark
  • 10R. Brewster
  • 11S. Szmodics
Substitutes
  • 31J. Vickers
  • 24R. Nyambe
  • 22M. Johnston
  • 37O. Eames
  • 23J. Ward
  • 33C. Blackett-Taylor
  • 13F. Bilbija
  • 19H. Meister
  • 15L. Salvesen
Coach: John Eustace

Form going into Portsmouth vs Derby

Portsmouth

  • L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Lincoln22 August 2026

Derby

  • L0-3Swansea29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Portsmouth621378-17
22Derby7115613-74

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Derby

  • 1 September 2026Portsmouth 0–2 DerbyChampionship
  • 16 March 2026Portsmouth 0–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 20 December 2025Derby 1–1 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 12 April 2025Portsmouth 2–2 DerbyChampionship
  • 13 December 2024Derby 4–0 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 2 April 2024Portsmouth 2–2 DerbyLeague One

Leading scorers: Portsmouth and Derby

Portsmouth

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Derby

  • B. Clark2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.