1 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Swansea vs Watford Championship prediction & result

Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Swansea 2-0 Watford.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Swansea, 29% draw, 30% Watford — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Swansea at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Swansea99%Draw1%Watford0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Eom Ji-Sungassist: A. Idah
8'
25'
O. H. Traore
⚽A. Idahassist: Eom Ji-Sung
29'
31'
🔁O. H. Traoreout: B. Mlacic
46'
🔁A. Nabizadaout: E. Bove
🔁E. Justout: M. Widell
57'
🔁J. Opokuout: M. K. Yeo
57'
65'
🔁O. Maammaout: R. Vata
🔁A. Idahout: Z. Vipotnik
67'
68'
H. Kyprianou
🔁M. Stamenicout: J. Fulton
68'
80'
K. Keben
83'
🔁I. Bravoout: L. Kjerrumgaard
🔁S. Welshout: J. Seelt
86'
90+1'
J. Zemura

Match stats — Swansea vs Watford

60%Possession40%
18Shots9
8On target3
5Corners3
2.71xG0.88

Goals against chances

Swansea2 from 2.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Watford0 from 0.88 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Swansea
  • 22L. Vigouroux
  • 2J. Key
  • 26F. Lissah
  • 23S. Welsh
  • 14J. Tymon
  • 6M. Stamenic
  • 30J. Opoku
  • 8E. Just
  • 46S. Eustaquio
  • 10Eom Ji-Sung
  • 33A. Idah
Substitutes
  • 1A. Fisher
  • 50C. Heywood
  • 3J. Seelt
  • 7M. Widell
  • 16T. Iorpenda
  • 44T. Woodward
  • 4J. Fulton
  • 9Z. Vipotnik
  • 49M. K. Yeo
Coach: Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos
Watford
  • 1F. Ravaglia
  • 23O. H. Traore
  • 6M. Pollock
  • 4K. Keben
  • 33J. Zemura
  • 39E. Kayembe
  • 5H. Kyprianou
  • 7O. Maamma
  • 17I. Bravo
  • 21A. Nabizada
  • 20M. Doumbia
Substitutes
  • 24S. Walker
  • 26D. Bachmann
  • 56A. Eames
  • 22M. Payero
  • 8E. Bove
  • 29B. Mlacic
  • 11R. Vata
  • 9L. Kjerrumgaard
  • 48M. Adu Poku
Coach: Alessio Dionisi

Form going into Swansea vs Watford

Swansea

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026
  • D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026

Watford

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1West Ham29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Wrexham22 August 2026
  • W2-1Southampton16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Swansea158252218+426
20Watford154381323-1015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Swansea vs Watford

  • 31 January 2026Watford 0–2 SwanseaChampionship
  • 23 August 2025Swansea 1–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 12 March 2025Watford 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 5 November 2024Swansea 1–0 WatfordChampionship
  • 6 March 2024Watford 1–1 SwanseaChampionship

The full Swansea vs Watford record →

The result against the call

Swansea beat Watford 2–0. The model had made a win for Swansea its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Eom Ji-Sung 8' for Swansea, A. Idah 29' for Swansea. On expected goals it finished 2.71–0.88.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.