1 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Birmingham vs Southampton Championship prediction & result

Birmingham
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Birmingham 1-1 Southampton.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Birmingham, 29% draw, 31% Southampton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Birmingham at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Birmingham5%Draw92%Southampton3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

B. Osayi-Samuel
45+1'
45'
⚽K. Schlotterbeckassist: L. Scienza
⚽A. Priskeassist: P. Roberts
55'
61'
🔁C. Braggout: J. Ward-Prowse
61'
🔁T. Fellowsout: K. Matsuki
69'
🔁C. Larinout: D. Mubama
🔁P. Robertsout: D. Gray
70'
72'
D. Mubama
J. E. Solis Romero
77'
81'
🔁L. Scienzaout: L. Dobbin
🔁C. Vicenteout: E. Laird
86'
🔁A. Priskeout: L. Vazquez
86'
🔁J. Stansfieldout: Paik Seung-Ho
87'
90+2'
N. Wood
L. Vazquez
90+2'

Match stats — Birmingham vs Southampton

48%Possession52%
16Shots13
4On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Birmingham
  • 1J. Beadle
  • 26B. Osayi-Samuel
  • 5P. Neumann
  • 4C. Klarer
  • 20A. Cochrane
  • 24T. Iwata
  • 14J. E. Solis Romero
  • 16P. Roberts
  • 28J. Stansfield
  • 7C. Vicente
  • 9A. Priske
Substitutes
  • 21R. Allsop
  • 25K. Lund
  • 23D. Fry
  • 2E. Laird
  • 8Paik Seung-Ho
  • 27K. Fujimoto
  • 10D. Gray
  • 33M. Ducksch
  • 32L. Vazquez
Coach: Chris Davies
Southampton
  • 1D. Peretz
  • 14J. Bree
  • 15N. Wood
  • 13K. Schlotterbeck
  • 3R. Manning
  • 26C. Bragg
  • 4F. Downes
  • 18T. Fellows
  • 10F. Azaz
  • 7L. Scienza
  • 9C. Larin
Substitutes
  • 25G. Long
  • 34Welington
  • 5J. Stephens
  • 29R. Akachukwu
  • 30J. Ward-Prowse
  • 27K. Matsuki
  • 40P. Ehibhatiomhan
  • 11L. Dobbin
  • 28D. Mubama

Form going into Birmingham vs Southampton

Birmingham

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026
  • D2-2Bristol City22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Sheffield Utd15 August 2026

Southampton

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1Millwall29 August 2026
  • W3-1Stoke City22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Birmingham158522814+1429
7Southampton158432915+1424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Southampton

  • 29 December 2025Birmingham 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 6 December 2025Southampton 3–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 2 March 2024Birmingham 3–4 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 28 October 2023Southampton 3–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 4 February 2012Birmingham 0–0 SouthamptonChampionship

The full Birmingham vs Southampton record →

Leading scorers: Birmingham and Southampton

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • A. Priske61
  • L. Millar43

Southampton

GoalsAssists

  • C. Larin70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham and Southampton drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Birmingham at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: K. Schlotterbeck 45' for Southampton, A. Priske 55' for Birmingham.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.