1 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Birmingham vs Southampton Championship prediction & result

Birmingham
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Birmingham 1-1 Southampton.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Birmingham, 29% draw, 31% Southampton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Birmingham at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Birmingham5%Draw92%Southampton3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

B. Osayi-Samuel
45+1'
45'
⚽K. Schlotterbeckassist: L. Scienza
⚽A. Priskeassist: P. Roberts
55'
61'
🔁C. Braggout: J. Ward-Prowse
61'
🔁T. Fellowsout: K. Matsuki
69'
🔁C. Larinout: D. Mubama
🔁P. Robertsout: D. Gray
70'
72'
D. Mubama
J. E. Solis Romero
77'
81'
🔁L. Scienzaout: L. Dobbin
🔁C. Vicenteout: E. Laird
86'
🔁A. Priskeout: L. Vazquez
86'
🔁J. Stansfieldout: Paik Seung-Ho
87'
90+2'
N. Wood
L. Vazquez
90+2'

Match stats — Birmingham vs Southampton

48%Possession52%
16Shots13
4On target4
3Corners5

Line-ups

Birmingham
  • 1J. Beadle
  • 26B. Osayi-Samuel
  • 5P. Neumann
  • 4C. Klarer
  • 20A. Cochrane
  • 24T. Iwata
  • 14J. E. Solis Romero
  • 16P. Roberts
  • 28J. Stansfield
  • 7C. Vicente
  • 9A. Priske
Substitutes
  • 21R. Allsop
  • 25K. Lund
  • 23D. Fry
  • 2E. Laird
  • 8Paik Seung-Ho
  • 27K. Fujimoto
  • 10D. Gray
  • 33M. Ducksch
  • 32L. Vazquez
Coach: Chris Davies
Southampton
  • 1D. Peretz
  • 14J. Bree
  • 15N. Wood
  • 13K. Schlotterbeck
  • 3R. Manning
  • 26C. Bragg
  • 4F. Downes
  • 18T. Fellows
  • 10F. Azaz
  • 7L. Scienza
  • 9C. Larin
Substitutes
  • 25G. Long
  • 34Welington
  • 5J. Stephens
  • 29R. Akachukwu
  • 30J. Ward-Prowse
  • 27K. Matsuki
  • 40P. Ehibhatiomhan
  • 11L. Dobbin
  • 28D. Mubama

Form going into Birmingham vs Southampton

Birmingham

  • W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026

Southampton

  • W5-1Millwall29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Birmingham7241109+110
9Southampton7421188+1010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Southampton

  • 1 September 2026Birmingham 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 29 December 2025Birmingham 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 6 December 2025Southampton 3–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 2 March 2024Birmingham 3–4 SouthamptonChampionship
  • 28 October 2023Southampton 3–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 4 February 2012Birmingham 0–0 SouthamptonChampionship

Leading scorers: Birmingham and Southampton

Birmingham

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Southampton

  • C. Larin7 goals
  • F. Azaz3 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.