Preston vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Preston 1-3 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Preston, 28% draw, 29% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Preston at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Preston vs Bristol City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. Iversen
- 4H. Clarke
- 6L. Lindsay
- 19L. Gibson
- 17S. Mills
- 27L. Leroy
- 15J. Thompson
- 12C. Wiley
- 7A. Devine
- 37D. Burgzorg
- 9J. Erabi
- 21L. Nicholls
- 3A. Vukcevic
- 24O. Offiah
- 14J. Storey
- 2P. Valentin
- 11T. Small
- 23A. Moran
- 10C. Lang
- 30G. Gryba
- 1S. Tickle
- 38N. Eile
- 16R. Dickie
- 2L. Eissat
- 21R. Cardines
- 12J. Knight
- 4A. Randell
- 7Y. Hirakawa
- 10S. Twine
- 20S. Greenwood
- 9L. Tolaj
- 40B. Collins
- 3C. Pring
- 8J. Williams
- 14T. Horvat
- 27G. Yah
- 17J. Wallace
- 45E. Adebayo
- 23D. Ballard
- 11S. Bell
Form going into Preston vs Bristol City
Preston
- L0-1away to Charlton29 August 2026
Bristol City
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Preston vs Bristol City
- 1 September 2026Preston 1–3 Bristol CityChampionship
- 4 January 2026Bristol City 0–2 PrestonChampionship
- 27 September 2025Preston 0–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 3 May 2025Bristol City 2–2 PrestonChampionship
- 2 November 2024Preston 1–3 Bristol CityChampionship
- 13 January 2024Preston 2–0 Bristol CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Preston and Bristol City
Preston
- C. Lang3 goals
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.