Preston vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Preston 1-3 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Preston, 28% draw, 29% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Preston at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Preston vs Bristol City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. Iversen
- 4H. Clarke
- 6L. Lindsay
- 19L. Gibson
- 17S. Mills
- 27L. Leroy
- 15J. Thompson
- 12C. Wiley
- 7A. Devine
- 37D. Burgzorg
- 9J. Erabi
- 21L. Nicholls
- 3A. Vukcevic
- 24O. Offiah
- 14J. Storey
- 2P. Valentin
- 11T. Small
- 23A. Moran
- 10C. Lang
- 30G. Gryba
- 1S. Tickle
- 38N. Eile
- 16R. Dickie
- 2L. Eissat
- 21R. Cardines
- 12J. Knight
- 4A. Randell
- 7Y. Hirakawa
- 10S. Twine
- 20S. Greenwood
- 9L. Tolaj
- 40B. Collins
- 3C. Pring
- 8J. Williams
- 14T. Horvat
- 27G. Yah
- 17J. Wallace
- 45E. Adebayo
- 23D. Ballard
- 11S. Bell
Form going into Preston vs Bristol City
Preston
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Charlton29 August 2026
- L1-3Wolves22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Bolton15 August 2026
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham22 August 2026
- L0-2Millwall15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 8 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Preston vs Bristol City
- 4 January 2026Bristol City 0–2 PrestonChampionship
- 27 September 2025Preston 0–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 3 May 2025Bristol City 2–2 PrestonChampionship
- 2 November 2024Preston 1–3 Bristol CityChampionship
- 13 January 2024Preston 2–0 Bristol CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Preston and Bristol City
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bristol City won 3–1 at Preston. The model had leaned towards a win for Preston at 43% and given a win for Bristol City 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Scott Twine 4' for Bristol City, Caleb Wiley 51' for Preston, Lisav Naif Eissat 79' for Bristol City, Dominic Ballard 86' for Bristol City. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.78.