1 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Stoke City vs Norwich Championship prediction & result

Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Stoke City 1-0 Norwich.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stoke City, 29% draw, 31% Norwich — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Stoke City at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stoke City96%Draw4%Norwich0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Galbraith
13'
🔁B. Wilmotout: L. Bombino
46'
🔁M. Manhoefout: S. Gallagher
46'
46'
🔁A. Slimaneout: A. Musaba
B. Lawal
47'
E. Galbraith
49'
56'
🔁D. Yongwaout: B. Chrisene
🔁G. Hirstout: R. Bozenik
59'
61'
J. Cordoba
66'
K. McLean
71'
🔁M. Toureout: M. Kvistgaarden
71'
🔁A. Brooksout: P. A. Diallo
85'
🔁P. Mattssonout: J. Wright
🔁D. Soumareout: B. Pearson
87'

Match stats — Stoke City vs Norwich

28%Possession72%
6Shots15
2On target6
3Corners5

Line-ups

Stoke City
  • 1V. Johansson
  • 16B. Wilmot
  • 18B. Lawal
  • 5L. Graham
  • 2B. Johnson
  • 27D. Soumare
  • 8E. Galbraith
  • 17E. Bocat
  • 42M. Manhoef
  • 15G. Hirst
  • 10Bae Jun-Ho
Substitutes
  • 24J. Griffiths
  • 21L. Bombino
  • 43F. Anderson
  • 52L. Giani
  • 4B. Pearson
  • 19T. Rigo
  • 59G. Kelly
  • 9R. Bozenik
  • 20S. Gallagher
Coach: Mark Robins
Norwich
  • 1V. Kovacevic
  • 3J. Stacey
  • 15R. McConville
  • 33J. Cordoba
  • 13D. Yongwa
  • 23K. McLean
  • 7P. Mattsson
  • 11A. Brooks
  • 20A. Slimane
  • 29O. Schwartau
  • 21M. Toure
Substitutes
  • 32D. Grimshaw
  • 6H. Darling
  • 14B. Chrisene
  • 35K. Fisher
  • 16J. Wright
  • 26S. Field
  • 49A. Musaba
  • 30M. Kvistgaarden
  • 19P. A. Diallo
Coach: Philippe Clement

Form going into Stoke City vs Norwich

Stoke City

  • L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026

Norwich

  • W4-1Burnley29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Stoke City73131111010
14Norwich7304131309

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Norwich

  • 1 September 2026Stoke City 1–0 NorwichChampionship
  • 4 January 2026Norwich 0–2 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 27 September 2025Stoke City 1–1 NorwichChampionship
  • 22 February 2025Norwich 4–2 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 19 October 2024Stoke City 1–1 NorwichChampionship
  • 16 March 2024Stoke City 0–3 NorwichChampionship

Leading scorers: Stoke City and Norwich

Stoke City

  • E. Galbraith3 goals
  • E. Bocat2 goals2 assists

Norwich

  • M. Touré4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.