1 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Sheffield Utd vs Bolton Championship prediction & result

Bramall Lane, Sheffield
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sheffield Utd 3-2 Bolton.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Sheffield Utd, 29% draw, 29% Bolton — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sheffield Utd at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sheffield Utd5%Draw92%Bolton3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽X. Simons
⚽J. Tangangaassist: S. Peck
4'
39'
G. Larrazabal
46'
🔁G. Larrazabalout: L. Brunt
49'
J. McAtee
🔁J. Riedewaldout: K. Phillips
61'
🔁T. Campbellout: T. Cannon
61'
🔁S. Peckout: O. Arblaster
62'
67'
⚽S. Dalbyassist: T. Gale
⚽P. Bamfordassist: S. McCallum
68'
75'
🔁J. McAteeout: R. Rodrigues
🔁B. Brereton Diazout: J. Shackleton
80'
81'
🔁A. Famewoout: M. Conway
81'
🔁T. Galeout: J. Nelson
🔁S. McCallumout: R. Norrington-Davies
86'
C. Wilder
90+4'
90'
🔁X. Simonsout: E. Erhahon
⚽R. Donovanassist: K. Phillips
90'

Match stats — Sheffield Utd vs Bolton

53%Possession47%
13Shots18
5On target6
5Corners5
2.21xG1.91

Goals against chances

Sheffield Utd3 from 2.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bolton2 from 1.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sheffield Utd
  • 1M. Cooper
  • 8H. Choudhury
  • 5J. Tanganga
  • 25M. McGuinness
  • 3S. McCallum
  • 11R. Donovan
  • 42S. Peck
  • 44J. Riedewald
  • 22B. Brereton Diaz
  • 45P. Bamford
  • 23T. Campbell
Substitutes
  • 17A. Davies
  • 2M. Doherty
  • 33J. Baptiste
  • 16J. Shackleton
  • 30R. Norrington-Davies
  • 4O. Arblaster
  • 7J. Rothwell
  • 27K. Phillips
  • 9T. Cannon
Coach: Chris Wilder
Bolton
  • 1J. Bonham
  • 22G. Larrazabal
  • 3C. Forino-Joseph
  • 6B. Davies
  • 14A. Famewo
  • 4X. Simons
  • 8J. Sheehan
  • 16S. Iling Junior
  • 45J. McAtee
  • 11T. Gale
  • 10S. Dalby
Substitutes
  • 31G. Bazunu
  • 5L. Brunt
  • 18E. Toal
  • 25M. Conway
  • 21E. Erhahon
  • 26J. Nelson
  • 39R. Hardie
  • 20R. Rodrigues
  • 7K. Dong
Coach: Steven Schumacher

Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Bolton

Sheffield Utd

  • D2-2away to Cardiff29 August 2026

Bolton

  • L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Sheffield Utd723289-19
20Bolton7214712-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Bolton

  • 1 September 2026Sheffield Utd 3–2 BoltonChampionship
  • 2 February 2019Sheffield Utd 2–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 25 August 2018Bolton 0–3 Sheffield UtdChampionship
  • 30 December 2017Sheffield Utd 0–1 BoltonChampionship
  • 12 September 2017Bolton 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
  • 25 February 2017Sheffield Utd 2–0 BoltonLeague One
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.