Sheffield Utd vs Bolton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Sheffield Utd 3-2 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Sheffield Utd, 29% draw, 29% Bolton — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Utd at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sheffield Utd vs Bolton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. Cooper
- 8H. Choudhury
- 5J. Tanganga
- 25M. McGuinness
- 3S. McCallum
- 11R. Donovan
- 42S. Peck
- 44J. Riedewald
- 22B. Brereton Diaz
- 45P. Bamford
- 23T. Campbell
- 17A. Davies
- 2M. Doherty
- 33J. Baptiste
- 16J. Shackleton
- 30R. Norrington-Davies
- 4O. Arblaster
- 7J. Rothwell
- 27K. Phillips
- 9T. Cannon
- 1J. Bonham
- 22G. Larrazabal
- 3C. Forino-Joseph
- 6B. Davies
- 14A. Famewo
- 4X. Simons
- 8J. Sheehan
- 16S. Iling Junior
- 45J. McAtee
- 11T. Gale
- 10S. Dalby
- 31G. Bazunu
- 5L. Brunt
- 18E. Toal
- 25M. Conway
- 21E. Erhahon
- 26J. Nelson
- 39R. Hardie
- 20R. Rodrigues
- 7K. Dong
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Bolton
Sheffield Utd
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Cardiff29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Swansea22 August 2026
- D0-0Birmingham15 August 2026
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Bolton
- 2 February 2019Sheffield Utd 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 25 August 2018Bolton 0–3 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 30 December 2017Sheffield Utd 0–1 BoltonChampionship
- 12 September 2017Bolton 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 25 February 2017Sheffield Utd 2–0 BoltonLeague One
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Bolton
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sheffield Utd beat Bolton 3–2. The model had made a win for Sheffield Utd its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: X. Simons 1' for Bolton, J. Tanganga 4' for Sheffield Utd, S. Dalby 67' for Bolton, P. Bamford 68' for Sheffield Utd, R. Donovan 90' for Sheffield Utd. On expected goals it finished 2.21–1.91.