Viking vs Sabah FA UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Viking 4-1 Sabah FA.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Viking, 19% draw, 16% Sabah FA — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Viking at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Viking vs Sabah FA
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. ØstbøG
- 5H. HeggheimD
- 6G. StensnessD
- 25H. FalchenerD
- 28K. HaugenD
- 7K. AskildsenM
- 29T. MoiM
- 16H. BjørdalM
- 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
- 10Z. TripićM
- 22E. BotheimF
- 17E. BasseyD
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 30Ľ. BelkoG
- 8J. BellM
- 20P. ChristiansenF
- 19A. CosicF
- 27J. DalandD
- 23N. FuglestadF
- 33J. HansenM
- 92S. PokatilovG
- 80A. ZedadkaD
- 3S. SolvetD
- 4A. McCarthyD
- 27T. PuchaczD
- 7U. RahmonaliyevM
- 13I. LepinjicaM
- 8C. NwachukwuM
- 6A. XaybulayevM
- 21V. SimićM
- 99P. MbinaF
- 10A. IsaevM
- 33Erivaldo AlmeidaD
- 88Rodrigo FernandesM
- 37Du QueirozM
- 34X. SeverinaM
- 1A. RamazanovG
- 11K. ParrisM
- 20J. MickelsF
- 17T. MütəllimovD
Form going into Viking vs Sabah FA
Viking
UEFA Champions League
- L1-3away to Aston Villa21 October 2026
- D3-3Bayern München13 October 2026
- L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026
Sabah FA
UEFA Champions League
- L1-2Borussia Dortmund20 October 2026
- W2-0Slavia Praha13 October 2026
- L0-4away to Manchester United10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Viking | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 31 | Sabah FA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Viking and Sabah FA
Viking
GoalsAssists
- Z. Tripić43
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- J. Mickels41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Viking beat Sabah FA 4–1. The model had made a win for Viking its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Patrick Orphe Mbina 11' for Sabah FA, Erik Botheim 27' for Viking, Zlatko Tripić 69' for Viking, Henrik Falchener 81' for Viking, Erik Botheim 90+4' for Viking. Sent off: Aden McCarthy (Sabah FA) 77'. On expected goals it finished 2.72–1.51.
How the call on Viking v Sabah FA has moved
First published on 21 Oct at 48% / 25% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 65% / 19% / 16%: the biggest move is Viking's chance of winning, up 17 points.
- Viking win65%▲ +17
- Draw19%▼ −6
- Sabah FA win16%▼ −11
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.