6 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Palms Sports Arena, Baku
Referee: R. Ahmedov
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Neftchi Baku 1-0 Kapaz.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Neftchi Baku, 20% draw, 13% Kapaz — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Neftchi Baku at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Neftchi Baku98%Draw2%Kapaz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
S. Seyidov
🔁F. Vargasout: A. Akinyemi
46'
46'
🔁Benitoout: A. Samadov
🔁D. Jubitanaout: A. Skribek
64'
🔁L. Tuptaout: D. Savic
64'
⚽A. Skribek
67'
72'
🔁K. Kalungaout: R. Haciyev
A. Skribek
78'
🔁Gustavo Klismahnout: E. Mahmudov
81'
88'
A. Samadov
88'
N. Alasgarov
89'
🔁A. Fofanaout: U. Samadov
🔁Breno Almeidaout: B. Sambou
89'
89'
🔁D. Acquahout: R. Maharramli
90+3'
🔁V. Stinaout: S. Ismayilov

Line-ups

Neftchi Baku
  • 1E. Balayev
  • 14E. Badalov
  • 3R. Abbasov
  • 77F. Sacko
  • 55A. Gravillon
  • 29L. Tupta
  • 33Breno Almeida
  • 10F. Vargas
  • 22D. Jubitana
  • 20Gustavo Klismahn
  • 88V. Sevelj
Substitutes
  • 93R. Cafarov
  • 91N. Azizov
  • 8E. Mahmudov
  • 7E. Safarov
  • 6S. D'Almeida
  • 24M. Seck
  • 18I. Mathew
  • 97B. Sambou
  • 26A. Akinyemi
Coach: Yuriy Vernydub
Kapaz
  • 1Rogerio
  • 34U. Abbasov
  • 7N. Alasgarov
  • 8S. Seyidov
  • 9K. Kalunga
  • 11V. Stina
  • 33Benito
  • 3M. Ba
  • 14A. Fofana
  • 4M. Abuladze
  • 27D. Acquah
Substitutes
  • 94R. Azizli
  • 81E. Bayramov
  • 10R. Haciyev
  • 6V. Abdullayev
  • 99A. Samadov
  • 20R. Maharramli
  • 5H. Babayev
  • 17U. Samadov
  • 2A. Atakishiyev
Coach: Azar Mammadov

Form going into Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz

Neftchi Baku

Premyer Liqa

  • W3-2away to Şamaxı FK1 November 2026
  • D1-1Turan24 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Qarabag17 October 2026
  • D0-0Sabah FA9 October 2026

Kapaz

Premyer Liqa

  • W1-0Imisli FK1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Safa Baku24 October 2026
  • D1-1Zira18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Neftchi Baku went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Neftchi Baku failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Neftchi Baku scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kapaz went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Kapaz scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Kapaz won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Neftchi Baku117312611+1524
6Kapaz105231010017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Neftchi Baku vs Kapaz

  • 23 May 2026Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 15 February 2026Kapaz 1–3 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 1 November 2025Neftchi Baku 5–1 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 4 May 2025Neftchi Baku 2–2 KapazPremyer Liqa
  • 5 March 2025Kapaz 1–0 Neftchi BakuPremyer Liqa
  • 28 February 2025Neftchi Baku 1–0 KapazCup

The result against the call

Neftchi Baku beat Kapaz 1–0. The model had made a win for Neftchi Baku its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: A. Skribek 67' for Neftchi Baku.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Neftchi Baku a 17.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 19.2% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.2%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

For Kapaz the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.3% going in: 10.6% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Neftchi Baku v Kapaz has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 70% / 19% / 11% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 67% / 20% / 13%: the biggest move is Neftchi Baku's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Neftchi Baku win67%▼ −3
  2. Draw20%▲ +1
  3. Kapaz win13%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.