16 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS Super Liga prediction & result

Surdulica City Stadium, Surdulica
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Radnik Surdulica 3-0 Radnicki NIS.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Radnik Surdulica, 27% draw, 27% Radnicki NIS — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Radnik Surdulica at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radnik Surdulica99%Draw1%Radnicki NIS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Franck Kanouté
15'
Franck Kanouté
Martin Novakovic
24'
31'
dorde petrovic
⚽Vukasin Bogdanovic (pen)
45'
45'
🔁A. Shestyukout: Kwaku Bonsu Osei
45'
🔁dorde petrovicout: Marko Mijailović
45'
🔁Gboly Ariyibiout: Igor Ivanović
⚽Aleksandar Pejovićassist: Uros Lazic
56'
🔁Emmanuel Quarshieout: Luka Jovanović
59'
🔁Aleksandar Pejovićout: Otabek Shukurov
63'
David Stojanovic
67'
75'
🔁Radomir Milosavljevićout: Damjan Krajisnik
78'
Issah Abass
🔁Vukasin Bogdanovicout: Luka Žorić
82'
🔁Tijan Sohnaout: Filip Zunic
82'
Luka Jovanović
84'
87'
🔁Luka Izdericout: stefan nikolic
⚽Martin Novakovicassist: Luka Jovanović
90+3'

Match stats — Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS

67%Possession33%
24Shots2
10On target1
7Corners3
2.7xG0.24

Goals against chances

Radnik Surdulica3 from 2.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
Radnicki NIS0 from 0.24 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1
  • 99S. RandjelovicG
  • 22U. LazićD
  • 6David StojanovićD
  • 37S. AbubakarD
  • 2Tijan SohnaD
  • 5M. PopovićM
  • 28A. PejovićM
  • 47Emmanuel QuarshieM
  • 30M. NovakovićM
  • 88Đ. JovanovićM
  • 9V. BogdanovićF
Substitutes
  • 23Lazar RadojicicG
  • 3Luka ŽorićD
  • 18F. ŽunićD
  • 7D. StojanovićM
  • 29O. ShukurovM
  • 14Uroš IlićD
  • 92A. KosiahF
  • 25Teo LakićF
  • 49D. MarkočevićF
Coach: Zoran Rendulic
Radnicki NIS 4-5-1
  • 12I. KostićG
  • 71D. PetrovićD
  • 5N. ZečevićD
  • 3R. JokićD
  • 18S. VeličkovićD
  • 7I. AbassM
  • 89Luka IzdericM
  • 6F. KanoutéM
  • 22R. MilosavljevićM
  • 28G. AriyibiM
  • 9A. ShestyukF
Substitutes
  • 23I. MustaphaF
  • 70Stefan NikolicM
  • 19K. OseiF
  • 94D. StanivukovićG
  • 20A. VidovićD
  • 15D. KrajišnikM
  • 42V. JovanovićF
  • 11I. IvanovićF
  • 17Luka BorovicM
Coach: M. Nedic

Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS

Radnik Surdulica

Super Liga

  • L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026

Radnicki NIS

Super Liga

  • L1-4Vojvodina11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Radnik Surdulica156542018+223
13Radnicki NIS1422101025-158

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS

  • 8 March 2026Radnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
  • 3 October 2025Radnicki NIS 4–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 21 April 2024Radnicki NIS 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 3 March 2024Radnicki NIS 0–3 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 22 September 2023Radnik Surdulica 0–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS

Radnik Surdulica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Bogdanović61
  • M. Novaković33

Radnicki NIS

No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Radnik Surdulica beat Radnicki NIS 3–0. The model had made a win for Radnik Surdulica its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Vukasin Bogdanovic (penalty) 45' for Radnik Surdulica, Aleksandar Pejović 56' for Radnik Surdulica, Martin Novakovic 90+3' for Radnik Surdulica. Sent off: Franck Kanouté (Radnicki NIS) 15'. On expected goals it finished 2.70–0.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radnik Surdulica a 9.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.1% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For Radnicki NIS the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 43.4% going in: 31.6% after a win, 44.8% after a draw, 48.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.8%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Radnik Surdulica's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Radnik Surdulica win46%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Radnicki NIS win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.