Sturm Graz vs Celje UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 2-3 Celje.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sturm Graz, 29% draw, 28% Celje — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sturm Graz at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Celje
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. HelacG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 28J. HeilM
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 27L. BalboM
- 19S. SeidlF
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 78V. MatoshiF
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 11A. KayomboF
- 41E. LorenzG
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 1Adam StejskalG
- 5A. VallciD
- 1Žan-Luk LebanG
- 2P. ŠirvysD
- 44Ł. BejgerD
- 6A. TutyškinasD
- 11M. AvdyliD
- 13Papa Mustapha DanielM
- 19M. ZabukovnikM
- 10S. SešlarM
- 25V. TushaF
- 47A. KučysF
- 7B. VerbičF
- 23Ž. FrelihG
- 4D. HrkaM
- 77M. IvanšekF
- 12L. KolarG
- 33L. KoútrisD
- 9B. KramerF
- 8M. KvesićM
- 31D. SuhovrsnikF
- 15Ž. ŽužekD
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Celje
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League
- W1-0Marseille22 October 2026
- L0-3away to Bournemouth15 October 2026
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
Celje
UEFA Europa League
- D2-2Red Bull Salzburg22 October 2026
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia15 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Celje
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Celje
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celje won 3–2 at Sturm Graz. The model had leaned towards a win for Sturm Graz at 43% and given a win for Celje 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Svit Seslar 29' for Celje, Oumar Diakité 40' for Sturm Graz, Benjamin Verbič 45' for Celje, Svit Seslar 73' for Celje, Oumar Diakité 90+3' for Sturm Graz. On expected goals it finished 2.92–1.27.
How the call on Sturm Graz v Celje has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Sturm Graz win43%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Celje win28%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.