15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Red Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Red Bull Salzburg, 28% draw, 45% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AC Milan at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Red Bull Salzburg0%Draw1%AC Milan99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Omari Hutchinson
21'
Omari Hutchinson
32'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Davide Bartesaghi
Valentin Zabransky
40'
49'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Adrien Rabiot
🔁Sota Kitanoout: Gaoussou Diakité
60'
60'
🔁Alphadjo Cissèout: Christian Pulisic
60'
🔁Francesco Camardaout: Gonçalo Ramos
🔁Edmund Baidooout: Yorbe Vertessen
60'
61'
🔁Adrien Rabiotout: Luka Modrić
67'
🔁Fikayo Tomoriout: Filippo Terracciano
72'
⚽Gonçalo Ramos
🔁Jesper Lindstromout: Damir Redzic
73'
🔁Haris Tabakovićout: Aboubacar Sidiki Camara
73'
🔁Leandro Morgallaout: Tim Drexler
81'
81'
🔁Strahinja Pavlovicout: Sankhoun Diawara
83'
Filippo Terracciano

Match stats — Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

52%Possession48%
14Shots15
2On target10
3Corners2
0.87xG4.05

Goals against chances

Red Bull Salzburg0 from 0.87 xGless than the chances were worth
AC Milan4 from 4.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1
  • 52Christian ZawieschitzkyG
  • 39L. MorgallaD
  • 44K. BomaD
  • 47Valentin ZabranskyD
  • 31D. SchmidD
  • 32A. BarryM
  • 15B. MazurekM
  • 35J. LindstrømM
  • 8S. KitanoM
  • 20E. BaidooM
  • 9H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
  • 30G. DiakitéF
  • 21T. DrexlerD
  • 33A. CamaraM
  • 1C. FrüchtlG
  • 13F. KrätzigD
  • 22S. LainerD
  • 4J. MellbergD
  • 23D. RedzicF
  • 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
Coach: D. Röhl
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovićD
  • 20O. HutchinsonM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 33D. BartesaghiM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekM
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 73F. CamardaF
Substitutes
  • 13S. BocoumD
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 22Diego MoreiraF
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

Red Bull Salzburg

UEFA Europa League

  • W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026

AC Milan

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-2Benfica16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
26Red Bull Salzburg411238-54
28AC Milan410347-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

  • 2 November 2022AC Milan 4–0 Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Champions League
  • 6 September 2022Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 AC MilanUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan

Red Bull Salzburg

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Cissè30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Milan won 4–0 at Red Bull Salzburg. The model had made a win for AC Milan its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alphadjo Cissè 15' for AC Milan, Alphadjo Cissè 32' for AC Milan, Alphadjo Cissè 49' for AC Milan, Gonçalo Ramos 72' for AC Milan. Sent off: Filippo Terracciano (AC Milan) 83'. On expected goals it finished 0.87–4.05.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.