1 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result

Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsberg
Referee: Alain Sadikovski
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Wolfsberger AC, 26% draw, 55% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 5.26, 3.85 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sturm Graz at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wolfsberger AC95%Draw5%Sturm Graz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
•Belmin Beganovic
Dominik Fitz
40'
⚽Donis Avdijajassist: Marco Alessandro Sulzner
45'
45'
🔁Valmir Matoshiout: Oumar Diakité
45'
🔁Jacob Peter Hödlout: Luis Balbo
🔁Raffael Behounekout: Cheick Mamadou Diabate
54'
Matteo Kitz
58'
🔁Sankara William Karamokoout: Giacomo Vrioni
63'
🔁Donis Avdijajout: Otar Mamageishvili
63'
🔁Simon Piesingerout: Thorsten Schriebl
63'
70'
🔁Belmin Beganovicout: Szymon Wlodarczyk
81'
🔁Jurgen Heilout: Axel Kayombo
88'
🔁Luca Weinhandlout: Albert Vallci
90+4'
Joshua Quarshie
90+5'
⚽Oumar Diakité (pen)

Match stats — Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

35%Possession65%
12Shots14
4On target3
3Corners4
1.1xG1.76

Goals against chances

Wolfsberger AC1 from 1.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sturm Graz1 from 1.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wolfsberger AC 3-5-2
  • 12L. GliklichG
  • 35Matteo KitzD
  • 6R. BehounekD
  • 30M. SulznerD
  • 31F. WohlmuthM
  • 10D. AvdijajM
  • 8S. PiesingerM
  • 36D. FitzM
  • 11A. SchwarzM
  • 23P. VerhounigF
  • 49S. KaramokoF
Substitutes
  • 9G. VrioniF
  • 20T. SchrieblM
  • 17Marco SchabauerM
  • 32M. PinkF
  • 19O. MamageishviliM
  • 1L. GütlbauerG
  • 15Cheikh Mamadou DiabatéD
  • 34E. AgyemangM
  • 70David ĐurićD
Coach: M. Schmid
Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 28J. HeilM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  • 39Luca WeinhandlM
  • 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 26B. BeganovićF
Substitutes
  • 17S. WłodarczykF
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 1Adam StejskalG
  • 21P. PetrovićD
  • 11A. KayomboF
  • 40J. HalwachsM
  • 14O. DiakitéF
  • 27L. BalboD
  • 25M. GrgicM
Coach: F. Ingolitsch

Form going into Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

Wolfsberger AC

Bundesliga

  • L0-1away to TSV Hartberg24 October 2026
  • L0-2WSG Wattens18 October 2026
  • L0-3away to SCR Altach11 October 2026

Sturm Graz

Bundesliga

  • D2-2Ried25 October 2026
  • W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Wolfsberger AC12138826-186
5Sturm Graz125432217+519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

  • 1 March 2026Wolfsberger AC 2–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 26 October 2025Sturm Graz 1–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
  • 24 May 2025Sturm Graz 1–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
  • 30 March 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 15 February 2025Wolfsberger AC 3–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 22 September 2024Sturm Graz 0–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga

Leading scorers: Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz

Wolfsberger AC

GoalsAssists

  • G. Vrioni40

Sturm Graz

GoalsAssists

  • O. Diakité90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sturm Graz at 55% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Donis Avdijaj 45' for Wolfsberger AC, Oumar Diakité (penalty) 90+5' for Sturm Graz. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolfsberger AC a 84.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 73.0% after a win, 82.4% after a draw, 88.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 82.4%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 21% / 28% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 26% / 55%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Wolfsberger AC win19%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Sturm Graz win55%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.