15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Twente vs FC Thun UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Referee: G. Nuza
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Twente 1-0 FC Thun.

Before kick-off the model made it 75% Twente, 16% draw, 9% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Twente at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Twente99%Draw1%FC Thun0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Daouda Weidmann
25'
31'
Fabio Fehr
Aske Adelgaard
43'
46'
🔁J. Bamertout: N. Zoukit
•Ramiz Zerrouki
58'
60'
Patrik Kristal
60'
•Patrik Kristal
⚽R. Zerroukiassist: D. Weidmann
65'
66'
🔁N. Reichmuthout: L. Passavant
66'
🔁F. Dursunout: N. Maier
🔁Y. Tahaout: K. Hlynsson
67'
🔁D. Rotsout: M. Pjaca
67'
🔁S. Orjasaeterout: F. Thorvaldsen
78'
81'
🔁O. Mambwaout: T. Strannegard
81'
🔁B. Labeauout: R. Braschi
🔁D. Weidmannout: T. van den Belt
84'

Match stats — Twente vs FC Thun

73%Possession27%
22Shots6
5On target0
6Corners1
2.18xG0.2

Goals against chances

Twente1 from 2.18 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Thun0 from 0.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 3R. PropperD
  • 4R. NijstadD
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 8D. WeidmannM
  • 11D. RotsM
  • 10Y. TahaM
  • 27S. OrjasaeterM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 31Y. GerritsenG
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 39J. MeilinkD
  • 14K. HlynssonM
  • 2M. RosiakD
  • 26B. NagelM
  • 20T. van den BeltM
  • 18J. BawuahM
Coach: John van den Brom
FC Thun 4-4-2
  • 1N. SteffenG
  • 47F. FehrD
  • 5N. BurgyD
  • 19J. BamertD
  • 2O. MambwaD
  • 70N. ReichmuthM
  • 16J. RothM
  • 14M. KaitM
  • 15P. KristalM
  • 96B. LabeauF
  • 9F. DursunF
Substitutes
  • 25T. SpycherG
  • 22D. WaltiG
  • 54L. PassavantD
  • 37L. DahlerD
  • 18T. StrannegardM
  • 13N. ZoukitM
  • 21D. DerbaciM
  • 80S. LengenF
  • 30N. MaierM
Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian

Form going into Twente vs FC Thun

Twente

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
  • W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
  • W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
  • W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026

FC Thun

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
  • L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
  • L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Twente330082+69
20FC Thun31023303

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Twente and FC Thun

Twente

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pjaca41
  • D. Weidmann35

FC Thun

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Twente beat FC Thun 1–0. The model had made a win for Twente its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: R. Zerrouki 65' for Twente. Sent off: Patrik Kristal (FC Thun) 60'. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.20.

How the call on Twente v FC Thun has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 63% / 22% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 75% / 16% / 9%: the biggest move is Twente's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Twente win75%▲ +12
  2. Draw16%▼ −6
  3. FC Thun win9%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.