Wolves vs Bolton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 1-3 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Wolves, 24% draw, 20% Bolton — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Bolton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1José SáG
- 2K. TrippierD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 7AndréM
- 8J. JamesM
- 27J. BellegardeM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 36M. ManeM
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 24Toti GomesD
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 19R. SaïdF
- 14S. NeaveF
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 33G. KonanD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 5L. BruntD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 11T. GaleM
- 9T. BairF
- 17A. ItoF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
- 6B. DaviesD
- 10S. DalbyF
- 25M. ConwayD
- 1J. BonhamG
- 35Max LottF
Form going into Wolves vs Bolton
Wolves
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
- L2-4away to West Ham1 September 2026
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
What these results say
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wolves vs Bolton
- 21 April 2018Bolton 0–4 WolvesChampionship
- 25 November 2017Wolves 5–1 BoltonChampionship
- 2 February 2016Wolves 2–2 BoltonChampionship
- 12 September 2015Bolton 2–1 WolvesChampionship
- 31 January 2015Bolton 2–2 WolvesChampionship
Leading scorers: Wolves and Bolton
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bolton won 3–1 at Wolves. The model had leaned towards a win for Wolves at 56% and given a win for Bolton 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Atsuki Ito 28' for Bolton, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 50' for Wolves, Sam Dalby 72' for Bolton, Josh Sheehan 82' for Bolton. On expected goals it finished 2.27–1.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolves a 38.5% chance to finish in the top four: 40.9% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 31.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.5%, 7 points lower than before the match.
For Bolton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.8% going in: 20.6% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.6%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wolves v Bolton has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is Wolves's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Wolves win56%▲ +7
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Bolton win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.