Coritiba vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 2-0 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Coritiba, 29% draw, 31% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Coritiba at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CoserD
- 55JacyD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GomezM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 10JosueF
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 3MaiconD
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 14F. BustosD
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 25RichardM
- 50TissiM
- 17B. OcampoF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 59G. de Jesus SoaresD
- 26EdenilsonD
- 25CacaD
- 2E. BritezD
- 95Caique GoncalvesM
- 33ErickM
- 88Ze VitorM
- 6Emmanuel MartinezM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 91ReneF
- 71YuriG
- 3DarlanD
- 69WandersonD
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 44BaralhasM
- 16R. RamosM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 79Renato KayzerF
Form going into Coritiba vs Vitoria
Coritiba
Serie A
- L0-1Gremio26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
Vitoria
Serie A
- D1-1Atletico Paranaense24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Vitoria
Coritiba and Vitoria have met 6 times in the records we hold, Coritiba has won 3 of them to Vitoria's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Coritiba won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Vitoria | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Serie ACoritiba 2–0 Vitoria - 2 May 2026
Serie AVitoria 4–1 Coritiba - 22 Sep 2021
Serie BVitoria 0–0 Coritiba - 23 Jun 2021
Serie BCoritiba 1–0 Vitoria - 30 Nov 2019
Serie BVitoria 1–2 Coritiba - 27 Aug 2019
Serie BCoritiba 1–1 Vitoria
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Coritiba's attack rates 7% above Vitoria's, and Vitoria concede 6% fewer than Coritiba. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Vitoria
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Coritiba beat Vitoria 2–0. The model had made a win for Coritiba its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pedro Rocha 58' for Coritiba, Tinga 69' for Coritiba. On expected goals it finished 2.30–0.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coritiba a 23.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.3% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 38.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 16 points lower than before the match.
For Vitoria the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 15.1% going in: 3.6% after a win, 12.5% after a draw, 24.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.1%, 9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Coritiba v Vitoria has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Coritiba's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Coritiba win40%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Vitoria win31%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.