25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Referee: Safak Barmaksiz
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Sturm Graz 2-2 Ried.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Sturm Graz, 23% draw, 17% Ried — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sturm Graz at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz0%Draw5%Ried95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
Luka Capan
⚽Simon Seidl
31'
•Arjan Malić
45'
Arjan Malić
45+2'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
45+4'
45+5'
⚽Philipp Pomer (pen)
47'
Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer
55'
⚽Isaac Thelinassist: Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer
63'
🔁Lukas Malicsekout: Martin Rasner
64'
🔁Jussef Nasraweout: Stefan Schwab
🔁Luis Balboout: Petar Petrović
67'
🔁Simon Seidlout: Belmin Beganovic
67'
🔁Oumar Diakitéout: Szymon Wlodarczyk
78'
🔁Jon Gorenc Stankovićout: Julian Halwachs
78'
80'
🔁Isaac Thelinout: Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
80'
🔁J. Rhodesout: Joris Boguo
87'
🔁Luka Capanout: Oliver Steurer
🔁Valmir Matoshiout: Niklas Geyrhofer
89'
⚽Belmin Beganovicassist: Jacob Peter Hödl
90+2'
Szymon Wlodarczyk
90+2'

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Ried

44%Possession56%
27Shots10
6On target4
8Corners2
1.98xG1.39

Goals against chances

Sturm Graz2 from 1.98 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ried2 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  • 39Luca WeinhandlM
  • 27L. BalboM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 14O. DiakitéF
Substitutes
  • 26B. BeganovićF
  • 35N. GeyrhoferD
  • 40J. HalwachsM
  • 11A. KayomboF
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 99Kelechi NnamdiD
  • 21P. PetrovićD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 17S. WłodarczykF
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Ried 3-4-1-2
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 29L. CapanD
  • 18F. RossdorferM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 4L. MalicsekM
  • 17P. PomerM
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 92I. Kiese ThelinF
  • 11J. RhodesF
Substitutes
  • 21T. KusanovicF
  • 19T. Lund JensenM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 9N. SissokoF
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 13H. HankičG
  • 47Evan Eghosa AisowierenM
  • 15J. BoguoF
Coach: M. Despotović

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Ried

Sturm Graz

Bundesliga

  • W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026

Ried

Bundesliga

  • W3-2Austria Vienna17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sturm Graz125432217+519
6Ried124442122-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Ried

  • 8 February 2026Sturm Graz 1–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 16 August 2025Ried 1–3 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 28 August 2024Ried 1–3 Sturm GrazCup
  • 30 October 2022Sturm Graz 2–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 6 August 2022Ried 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 6 March 2022Ried 2–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Ried

Sturm Graz

GoalsAssists

  • O. Diakité90

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • S. Schwab42
  • P. Pomer41
  • I. Kiese Thelin40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sturm Graz and Ried drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sturm Graz at 60% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Simon Seidl 31' for Sturm Graz, Philipp Pomer (penalty) 45+5' for Ried, Isaac Thelin 55' for Ried, Belmin Beganovic 90+2' for Sturm Graz. Sent off: Arjan Malić (Sturm Graz) 45+2'. On expected goals it finished 1.98–1.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sturm Graz a 5.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 6.3% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 2.4%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For Ried the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 72.5% going in: 85.2% after a win, 75.7% after a draw, 69.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 75.7%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sturm Graz v Ried has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Sturm Graz win60%▲ +5
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Ried win17%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.