30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Stadion, Vienna
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rapid Vienna, 29% draw, 30% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rapid Vienna at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapid Vienna99%Draw1%Sturm Graz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Jurgen Heil
⚽Y. Demir (pen)
7'
10'
⚽B. Beganovicassist: S. Seidl
⚽M. Tilioassist: T. Adamsen
17'
🔁J. Hornout: E. Roka
46'
46'
🔁E. Sogloout: L. Balbo
46'
🔁J. Hodlout: G. Mamageishvili
53'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
Romeo Amane
59'
59'
🔁B. Beganovicout: N. Weiper
🔁M. Tilioout: P. Dahl
61'
65'
Luca Weinhandl
🔁R. Amaneout: M. Seidl
73'
🔁T. Adamsenout: E. Kara
73'
75'
🔁S. Seidlout: V. Matoshi
81'
🔁P. Kollerout: J. Quarshie
🔁M. Haidaraout: N. Wurmbrand
84'
⚽P. Dahlassist: Y. Demir
86'
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
89'
90'
Albert Vallci

Match stats — Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

55%Possession45%
16Shots19
6On target5
6Corners4
2.37xG0.76

Goals against chances

Rapid Vienna3 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sturm Graz1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 55N. CvetkovicD
  • 6S. Raux-YaoD
  • 38J. HornD
  • 29R. AmaneM
  • 30N. BajliczM
  • 7M. TilioM
  • 22Y. DemirM
  • 43M. HaidaraM
  • 8T. AdamsenF
Substitutes
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 61F. DemirD
  • 2E. RokaD
  • 47A. GrollerD
  • 21L. SchaubM
  • 18M. SeidlM
  • 15N. WurmbrandF
  • 10P. DahlF
  • 9E. KaraF
Coach: Johannes Thorup
Sturm Graz 4-2-2-2
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 20S. JattaF
  • 26B. BeganovicF
Substitutes
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 27L. BalboD
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 44N. WeiperF
  • 11A. KayomboF
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Form going into Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Heart of Midlothian26 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Heart of Midlothian20 August 2026
  • W8-0Grazer AK16 August 2026
  • W2-0Paide12 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026

Sturm Graz

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
  • W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
  • L0-1Fenerbahçe11 August 2026
  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Fenerbahçe5 August 2026

What these results say

  • Rapid Vienna went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Sturm Graz had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Rapid Vienna121101399+3033
5Sturm Graz125432217+519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

  • 17 May 2026Sturm Graz 2–0 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 5 April 2026Rapid Vienna 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 2 November 2025Rapid Vienna 2–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 10 August 2025Sturm Graz 1–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 18 May 2025Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga

Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna

GoalsAssists

  • E. Kara71
  • P. Dahl71
  • T. Adamsen55

Sturm Graz

GoalsAssists

  • O. Diakité90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rapid Vienna beat Sturm Graz 3–1. The model had made a win for Rapid Vienna its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Y. Demir (penalty) 7' for Rapid Vienna, B. Beganovic 10' for Sturm Graz, M. Tilio 17' for Rapid Vienna, P. Dahl 86' for Rapid Vienna. Sent off: Albert Vallci (Sturm Graz) 90'. On expected goals it finished 2.37–0.76.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.