30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result

Allianz Stadion, Vienna
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rapid Vienna, 29% draw, 30% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rapid Vienna at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rapid Vienna99%Draw1%Sturm Graz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Jurgen Heil
⚽Y. Demir (pen)
7'
10'
⚽B. Beganovicassist: S. Seidl
⚽M. Tilioassist: T. Adamsen
17'
🔁J. Hornout: E. Roka
46'
46'
🔁E. Sogloout: L. Balbo
46'
🔁J. Hodlout: G. Mamageishvili
53'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
Romeo Amane
59'
59'
🔁B. Beganovicout: N. Weiper
🔁M. Tilioout: P. Dahl
61'
65'
Luca Weinhandl
🔁R. Amaneout: M. Seidl
73'
🔁T. Adamsenout: E. Kara
73'
75'
🔁S. Seidlout: V. Matoshi
81'
🔁P. Kollerout: J. Quarshie
🔁M. Haidaraout: N. Wurmbrand
84'
⚽P. Dahlassist: Y. Demir
86'
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
89'
90'
Albert Vallci

Match stats — Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

55%Possession45%
16Shots19
6On target5
6Corners4
2.37xG0.76

Goals against chances

Rapid Vienna3 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sturm Graz1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 55N. CvetkovicD
  • 6S. Raux-YaoD
  • 38J. HornD
  • 29R. AmaneM
  • 30N. BajliczM
  • 7M. TilioM
  • 22Y. DemirM
  • 43M. HaidaraM
  • 8T. AdamsenF
Substitutes
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 61F. DemirD
  • 2E. RokaD
  • 47A. GrollerD
  • 21L. SchaubM
  • 18M. SeidlM
  • 15N. WurmbrandF
  • 10P. DahlF
  • 9E. KaraF
Coach: Johannes Thorup
Sturm Graz 4-2-2-2
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 28J. HeilD
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 20S. JattaF
  • 26B. BeganovicF
Substitutes
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 27L. BalboD
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 44N. WeiperF
  • 11A. KayomboF
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Form going into Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna

  • W8-0Grazer AK16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026

Sturm Graz

  • D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
  • W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Rapid Vienna6501187+1115
4Sturm Graz632186+211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

  • 30 August 2026Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 17 May 2026Sturm Graz 2–0 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 5 April 2026Rapid Vienna 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 2 November 2025Rapid Vienna 2–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 10 August 2025Sturm Graz 1–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
  • 18 May 2025Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga

Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna

  • T. Adamsen4 goals1 assists
  • P. Dahl3 goals
  • Y. Demir2 goals2 assists

Sturm Graz

  • N. Weiper2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.