30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

TSV Hartberg vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result

Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg
Full time3 – 2

Final score: TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% TSV Hartberg, 30% draw, 33% Ried — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts TSV Hartberg at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

TSV Hartberg96%Draw4%Ried0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Lukas Malicsek
⚽M. Hoffmann (pen)
6'
11'
⚽S. Chukwudi
Youba Diarra
12'
34'
Niama Pape Sissoko
⚽M. Hoffmannassist: F. Wilfinger
38'
46'
🔁O. Sorgout: P. Pomer
64'
⚽E. E. Aisowierenassist: J. Nasrawe
🔁O. Lukicout: M. Dalpiaz
66'
🔁Y. Diarraout: J. Karner
66'
⚽J. Karnerassist: T. Kainz
71'
75'
🔁S. Schwabout: M. Rasner
76'
🔁L. Malicsekout: F. Rossdorfer
76'
🔁J. Nasraweout: T. Lund-Jensen
🔁A. Gattermayerout: J. Drew
78'
83'
🔁P. Sissokoout: T. Kusanovic
🔁M. Pfeiferout: H. Coulibaly
88'
🔁T. Kainzout: N. Feldhofer
88'

Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Ried

41%Possession59%
14Shots17
5On target4
3Corners4
2.67xG1.66

Goals against chances

TSV Hartberg3 from 2.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ried2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg 4-3-2-1
  • 91A. PecsiG
  • 18F. WilfingerD
  • 27K. SchoppD
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 12M. PfeiferD
  • 7A. GattermayerM
  • 4B. MarkusM
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 22M. Hoffmann
Substitutes
  • 21L. MaricG
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 6H. CoulibalyD
  • 16M. DalpiazD
  • 95N. FeldhoferM
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 8M. PostlF
  • 11J. DrewF
  • 70C. OnuohaF
Coach: Markus Schopp
Ried 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 12A. BajicM
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 47E. E. AisowierenM
  • 9P. Sissoko
Substitutes
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 33A. GoigingerD
  • 17P. PomerM
  • 18F. RossdorferM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 19T. Lund-JensenM
  • 21T. KusanovicF
  • 15J. Boguo
Coach: Mario Despotovic

Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Ried

TSV Hartberg

  • W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
  • L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
  • L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026

Ried

  • W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
  • L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6TSV Hartberg6213710-37
10Ried6123711-45

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Ried

  • 30 August 2026TSV Hartberg 3–2 RiedBundesliga
  • 22 November 2025TSV Hartberg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 14 September 2025Ried 0–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 27 May 2023TSV Hartberg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 8 April 2023Ried 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 12 February 2023Ried 0–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga

Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Ried

TSV Hartberg

  • C. Hoffmann2 goals1 assists

Ried

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.