30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

TSV Hartberg vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result

Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg
Full time3 – 2

Final score: TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% TSV Hartberg, 30% draw, 33% Ried — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

TSV Hartberg at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

TSV Hartberg96%Draw4%Ried0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Lukas Malicsek
⚽M. Hoffmann (pen)
6'
11'
⚽S. Chukwudi
Youba Diarra
12'
34'
Niama Pape Sissoko
⚽M. Hoffmannassist: F. Wilfinger
38'
46'
🔁O. Sorgout: P. Pomer
64'
⚽E. E. Aisowierenassist: J. Nasrawe
🔁O. Lukicout: M. Dalpiaz
66'
🔁Y. Diarraout: J. Karner
66'
⚽J. Karnerassist: T. Kainz
71'
75'
🔁S. Schwabout: M. Rasner
76'
🔁L. Malicsekout: F. Rossdorfer
76'
🔁J. Nasraweout: T. Lund-Jensen
🔁A. Gattermayerout: J. Drew
78'
83'
🔁P. Sissokoout: T. Kusanovic
🔁M. Pfeiferout: H. Coulibaly
88'
🔁T. Kainzout: N. Feldhofer
88'

Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Ried

41%Possession59%
14Shots17
5On target4
3Corners4
2.67xG1.66

Goals against chances

TSV Hartberg3 from 2.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ried2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg 4-3-2-1
  • 91A. PecsiG
  • 18F. WilfingerD
  • 27K. SchoppD
  • 14P. KomposchD
  • 12M. PfeiferD
  • 7A. GattermayerM
  • 4B. MarkusM
  • 23T. KainzM
  • 5Y. DiarraM
  • 10O. LukicM
  • 22M. Hoffmann
Substitutes
  • 21L. MaricG
  • 19L. SpendlhoferD
  • 6H. CoulibalyD
  • 16M. DalpiazD
  • 95N. FeldhoferM
  • 17J. KarnerM
  • 8M. PostlF
  • 11J. DrewF
  • 70C. OnuohaF
Coach: Markus Schopp
Ried 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 12A. BajicM
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 47E. E. AisowierenM
  • 9P. Sissoko
Substitutes
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 33A. GoigingerD
  • 17P. PomerM
  • 18F. RossdorferM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 19T. Lund-JensenM
  • 21T. KusanovicF
  • 15J. Boguo
Coach: Mario Despotovic

Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Ried

TSV Hartberg

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
  • L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
  • L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg1 August 2026

Ried

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
  • L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Austria Lustenau2 August 2026

What these results say

  • TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • TSV Hartberg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • TSV Hartberg failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ried scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ried failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ried conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4TSV Hartberg126242319+420
6Ried124442122-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Ried

  • 22 November 2025TSV Hartberg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 14 September 2025Ried 0–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 27 May 2023TSV Hartberg 2–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 8 April 2023Ried 1–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
  • 12 February 2023Ried 0–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga

Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Ried

TSV Hartberg

GoalsAssists

  • C. Hoffmann61
  • M. Hoffman40

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • S. Schwab42
  • P. Pomer41
  • I. Kiese Thelin40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

TSV Hartberg beat Ried 3–2. The model had made a win for TSV Hartberg its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Hoffmann (penalty) 6' for TSV Hartberg, S. Chukwudi 11' for Ried, M. Hoffmann 38' for TSV Hartberg, E. E. Aisowieren 64' for Ried, J. Karner 71' for TSV Hartberg. On expected goals it finished 2.67–1.66.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.