Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Moscow 1-1 FC Orenburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Spartak Moscow, 28% draw, 19% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Moscow at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg
Line-ups
- 98A. MaksimenkoG
- 83G. FernandesD
- 3C. WoohD
- 4A. DjikuD
- 47R. ZobninD
- 18N. UmyarovM
- 7P. SolariM
- 25D. PrutsevM
- 19M. DakuM
- 10MarquinhosM
- 9M. UgaldeF
- 56A. DovbnyaG
- 1I. PomazunG
- 82D. KhlusevichD
- 33V. ParadaD
- 97D. DenisovD
- 17V. SausM
- 40I. SorokinM
- 27I. DmitrievM
- 24N. MassalygaM
- 1B. OvsyannikovG
- 24M. SivisD
- 6J. PalaciosD
- 5A. TataevD
- 26E. TsenovD
- 3D. VedernikovD
- 8D. PueblaM
- 78R. KulM
- 57E. BolotovM
- 20D. RybchinskiyM
- 30G. GuzinaF
- 95A. KhodanovichG
- 4D. KhotulevD
- 38A. KasimovD
- 2S. PoroykovD
- 65I. IvashchenkoM
- 11E. NazarenkoM
- 80M. PykhcheevM
- 63O. MinatulaevM
- 19Alexandre JesusF
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Zenit23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Baltika16 August 2026
- L1-2FC Krasnodar9 August 2026
FC Orenburg
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Fakel22 August 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv14 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rubin9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 10 | FC Orenburg | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs FC Orenburg
- 5 August 2026Spartak Moscow 5–1 FC OrenburgCup
- 22 March 2026FC Orenburg 0–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 25 October 2025Spartak Moscow 1–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 2 March 2025Spartak Moscow 2–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 21 July 2024FC Orenburg 2–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 25 May 2024Orenburg 0–0 Spartak MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and FC Orenburg
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde60
- M. Daku51
FC Orenburg
GoalsAssists
- J. Thompson42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Moscow and FC Orenburg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Spartak Moscow at 53% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Kul 66' for FC Orenburg, M. Daku (penalty) 76' for Spartak Moscow.