Leeds vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Leeds 1-1 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Leeds, 28% draw, 36% Brentford — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leeds at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leeds vs Brentford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1James TraffordG
- 6Joe RodonD
- 15Jaka BijolD
- 5Tarik MuharemovićD
- 2Jayden BogleM
- 4Ethan AmpaduM
- 18Anton StachM
- 24James JustinM
- 11Brenden AaronsonF
- 19Noah OkaforF
- 9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
- 30Nico ElvediD
- 10Harry WilsonF
- 22Ao TanakaM
- 7Daniel JamesF
- 14Lukas NmechaF
- 21Alex CairnsG
- 3Gabriel GudmundssonD
- 8Sean LongstaffM
- 29Wilfried GnontoF
- 1Caoimhin KelleherG
- 33Michael KayodeD
- 20Kristoffer AjerD
- 22Nathan CollinsD
- 23Keane Lewis-PotterD
- 18Mamadou SangareM
- 27Vitaly JaneltM
- 19Jaidon AnthonyM
- 24Mikkel DamsgaardM
- 7Kevin SchadeM
- 9Igor ThiagoF
- 11Dango OuattaraF
- 6Yehor YarmoliukM
- 2Aaron HickeyD
- 3Rico HenryD
- 13Callum WilsonF
- 12Hákon Rafn ValdimarssonG
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 25El Hadji Malick DioufD
- 14Fabio CarvalhoM
Form going into Leeds vs Brentford
Leeds
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
Brentford
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Brentford
- 30 August 2026Leeds 1–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 21 March 2026Leeds 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 14 December 2025Brentford 1–1 LeedsPremier League
- 22 January 2023Leeds 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 3 September 2022Brentford 5–2 LeedsPremier League
- 22 May 2022Brentford 1–2 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Leeds and Brentford
Leeds
- D. Calvert-Lewin2 goals1 assists
- J. Bogle2 goals
Brentford
- K. Schade3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.