Leeds vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Leeds 1-1 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Leeds, 28% draw, 36% Brentford — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Leeds at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leeds vs Brentford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1James TraffordG
- 6Joe RodonD
- 15Jaka BijolD
- 5Tarik MuharemovićD
- 2Jayden BogleM
- 4Ethan AmpaduM
- 18Anton StachM
- 24James JustinM
- 11Brenden AaronsonF
- 19Noah OkaforF
- 9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
- 30Nico ElvediD
- 10Harry WilsonF
- 22Ao TanakaM
- 7Daniel JamesF
- 14Lukas NmechaF
- 21Alex CairnsG
- 3Gabriel GudmundssonD
- 8Sean LongstaffM
- 29Wilfried GnontoF
- 1Caoimhin KelleherG
- 33Michael KayodeD
- 20Kristoffer AjerD
- 22Nathan CollinsD
- 23Keane Lewis-PotterD
- 18Mamadou SangareM
- 27Vitaly JaneltM
- 19Jaidon AnthonyM
- 24Mikkel DamsgaardM
- 7Kevin SchadeM
- 9Igor ThiagoF
- 11Dango OuattaraF
- 6Yehor YarmoliukM
- 2Aaron HickeyD
- 3Rico HenryD
- 13Callum WilsonF
- 12Hákon Rafn ValdimarssonG
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 25El Hadji Malick DioufD
- 14Fabio CarvalhoM
Form going into Leeds vs Brentford
Leeds
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
Brentford
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Brentford
- 21 March 2026Leeds 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 14 December 2025Brentford 1–1 LeedsPremier League
- 22 January 2023Leeds 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 3 September 2022Brentford 5–2 LeedsPremier League
- 22 May 2022Brentford 1–2 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Leeds and Brentford
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leeds and Brentford drew 1–1. The goals: K. Schade 41' for Brentford, D. Calvert-Lewin 79' for Leeds. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.56.