Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stoke City 2-3 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Stoke City, 28% draw, 39% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonD
- 16B. WilmotD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 22J. TchamadeuM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 11L. CisséF
- 10Bae Jun-HoF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 13J. DevennyM
- 23B. GibsonD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 18B. LawalD
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 1R. VítekG
- 12L. AylingD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 2C. BrittainM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 10A. MorrisM
- 30Neto BorgesM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 16J. SarmientoM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 8R. McGreeM
- 22K. JosephF
- 9T. ConwayF
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 3S. ByramD
- 31S. BrynnG
- 18C. BarronM
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
Form going into Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Stoke City
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
- W1-0away to QPR5 September 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
- 21 January 2026Stoke City 1–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 30 September 2025Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 25 February 2025Stoke City 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 28 September 2024Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 27 August 2024Middlesbrough 0–5 Stoke CityLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Middlesbrough
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough won 3–2 at Stoke City. The model had made a win for Middlesbrough its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Callum Brittain 48' for Middlesbrough, Neto Borges (own goal) 50' for Stoke City, will lankshear 73' for Middlesbrough, Róbert Boženík 85' for Stoke City, Neto Borges 90+1' for Middlesbrough. On expected goals it finished 0.74–2.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stoke City a 12.3% chance to finish in the top four: 14.6% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
For Middlesbrough the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 51.8% going in: 57.2% after a win, 50.7% after a draw, 46.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.2%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.