FC Porto vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 4-0 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% FC Porto, 16% draw, 7% Estoril — fair odds of 1.30, 6.25 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Estoril
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 12Z. SanusiD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 9SamuF
- 17Borja SainzF
- 42S. FofanaM
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 29S. GiménezF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 21D. PrpićD
- 18N. PérezD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 24AndorinhaG
- 16M. TurkG
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 25S. AndreouD
- 4FerroD
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 99R. GuitaneM
- 5A. TsounguiM
- 6Xavi SintesM
- 42J. ArnolinM
- 17PeixinhoM
- 7André LacximicantF
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 11N. OmerovićF
- 44M. RobinM
- 15Isma SierraD
- 43fletcher loweG
- 8XekaM
- 35S. AmissahD
Form going into FC Porto vs Estoril
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L1-3Moreirense25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu10 October 2026
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
What these results say
- Estoril did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Estoril conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Estoril scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs FC Porto
Estoril and FC Porto have met 7 times in the records we hold, FC Porto has won 6 of them to Estoril's 1.
The record
FC Porto won the last one 4–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| FC Porto | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 3 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaFC Porto 4–0 Estoril - 12 Apr 2026
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–3 FC Porto - 30 Nov 2025
Primeira LigaFC Porto 1–0 Estoril - 30 Mar 2025
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–2 FC Porto - 3 Nov 2024
Primeira LigaFC Porto 4–0 Estoril - 30 Mar 2024
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–0 FC Porto - 9 Jan 2024
Taça de PortugalEstoril 0–4 FC Porto
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FC Porto's attack rates 99% above Estoril's, and FC Porto concede 57% fewer than Estoril. That gives FC Porto the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Estoril
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto beat Estoril 4–0. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 77%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Victor Froholdt 4' for FC Porto, Borja Sainz 64' for FC Porto, André Silva 70' for FC Porto, Gabri Veiga 73' for FC Porto. On expected goals it finished 3.13–0.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Porto a 60.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 62.7% after a win, 52.7% after a draw, 46.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.7%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Estoril the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 63.6% going in: 52.8% after a win, 60.8% after a draw, 64.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.9%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Porto v Estoril has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 75% / 17% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 77% / 16% / 7%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Porto win77%▲ +2
- Draw16%▼ −1
- Estoril win7%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.