26 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Süper Lig prediction & result

Tupras Stadium, Istanbul
Referee: Umit Ozturk, Türkiye
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Beşiktaş 2-0 Başakşehir.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Beşiktaş, 25% draw, 28% Başakşehir — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Beşiktaş at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Beşiktaş99%Draw1%Başakşehir0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
O. Ba
46'
🔁U. Bozokout: J. Kaluzinski
46'
🔁O. Baout: H. Gureler
🔁V. Cernyout: E. Poku
56'
59'
M. Karbownik
60'
🔁Y. Sariout: I. Brnic
L. Trossard
61'
🔁W. Ndidiout: Oh Hyeon-Gyu
65'
75'
🔁E. Shomurodovout: B. Yildirim
⚽Oh Hyeon-Gyu
76'
78'
🔁U. Gunesout: D. Selke
⚽J. Olaitan
89'

Match stats — Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir

65%Possession35%
17Shots9
6On target4
5Corners2
1.88xG0.38

Goals against chances

Beşiktaş2 from 1.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Başakşehir0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1Alexander NübelG
  • 62Amir MurilloD
  • 12Emmanuel AgbadouD
  • 53Emirhan TopçuD
  • 33Rıdvan YılmazD
  • 6Salih ÖzcanM
  • 18Václav ČernýM
  • 4Wilfred NdidiM
  • 15Junior OlaitanM
  • 19Leandro TrossardM
  • 28Dušan VlahovićF
Substitutes
  • 17Ernest PokuF
  • 9Hyeon-gyu OhF
  • 80Doğan AlemdarG
  • 35Tiago DjalóD
  • 22Taylan BulutD
  • 11Kassoum OuattaraD
  • 58Yasin ÖzcanD
  • 8Kartal Kayra YılmazM
  • 29İlhan FakılıF
Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 16Muhammed ŞengezerG
  • 33Michał KarbownikD
  • 23Emin BayramD
  • 27Ousseynou BaD
  • 38Saba KharebashviliD
  • 8Olivier KemenM
  • 20Umut GüneşM
  • 7Yusuf SarıM
  • 17Umut BozokM
  • 70Andreas Skov OlsenM
  • 14Eldor ShomurodovF
Substitutes
  • 15Hamza GürelerD
  • 18Jakub KałuzińskiM
  • 77Ivan BrnićF
  • 91Bertuğ YıldırımF
  • 9Davie SelkeF
  • 98Deniz DilmenG
  • 42Ömer Ali ŞahinerM
  • 6Onur BulutD
  • 11Abbosbek FayzullaevM

Form going into Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir

Beşiktaş

Süper Lig

  • L0-2away to Trabzonspor19 October 2026
  • W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026

Başakşehir

Süper Lig

  • W2-1Gaziantep FK18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Beşiktaş117132312+1122
8Başakşehir115241917+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş

Başakşehir and Beşiktaş have met 7 times in the records we hold, Beşiktaş has won 4 of them to Başakşehir's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Beşiktaş won the last one 2–0 on 26 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Başakşehir12469
Beşiktaş42196

Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 26 Oct 2026
    Süper Lig    Beşiktaş 2–0 Başakşehir
  • 15 Feb 2026
    Süper Lig    Başakşehir 2–3 Beşiktaş
  • 13 Sep 2025
    Süper Lig    Beşiktaş 2–1 Başakşehir
  • 12 Apr 2025
    Süper Lig    Beşiktaş 0–2 Başakşehir
  • 10 Nov 2024
    Süper Lig    Başakşehir 0–0 Beşiktaş
  • 4 Apr 2024
    Süper Lig    Başakşehir 1–1 Beşiktaş
  • 12 Nov 2023
    Süper Lig    Beşiktaş 1–0 Başakşehir

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Beşiktaş's attack rates 5% above Başakşehir's, and Beşiktaş concede 10% fewer than Başakşehir. That gives Beşiktaş the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Başakşehir1.041.06
Beşiktaş1.090.95

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Başakşehir

Beşiktaş

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vlahović90

Başakşehir

GoalsAssists

  • E. Shomurodov81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beşiktaş beat Başakşehir 2–0. The model had made a win for Beşiktaş its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Oh Hyeon-Gyu 76' for Beşiktaş, J. Olaitan 89' for Beşiktaş. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Beşiktaş a 50.6% chance to finish in the top four: 56.0% after a win, 47.1% after a draw, 42.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.0%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Başakşehir the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.6% going in: 24.3% after a win, 18.4% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.9%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.