Clausura - 17 · 14 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Sport Huancayo vs Universitario Primera División prediction

Estadio Huancayo, Huancayo

Our model says: Sport Huancayo 2–1 Universitario

The model makes it 40% Sport Huancayo, 26% draw, 34% Universitario — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Sport Huancayo 1.71, Universitario 1.55.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sport Huancayo's rating is built from 68 Primera División (Peru) matches and Universitario's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Sport Huancayo are 8th on 50 points from 33 games; Universitario are 2nd on 61 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
  • Sport Huancayo have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Cienciano.
  • Universitario are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to UCV Moquegua.
  • Last 6 meetings: Universitario 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Universitario 2–1 Sport Huancayo.

More Primera División (Peru) predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sport Huancayo vs Universitario

65%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sport Huancayo win Draw Universitario win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Sport Huancayo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sport Huancayo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sport Huancayo vs Universitario

Sport Huancayo

Primera División

  • W2-1away to Cienciano8 November 2026
  • W2-0FBC Melgar2 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Juan Pablo II College27 October 2026
  • W4-1Alianza Atletico24 October 2026
  • W2-1Cusco16 October 2026

Universitario

Primera División

  • D2-2UCV Moquegua9 November 2026
  • D2-2Sport Boys5 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Atletico Grau1 November 2026
  • W3-0Juan Pablo II College25 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Alianza Atletico18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sport Huancayo won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sport Huancayo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sport Huancayo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Universitario went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Universitario scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sport Huancayo33155134849-150
2Universitario33171065939+2061

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Sport Huancayo vs Universitario

  • 31 May 2026Universitario 2–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 17 August 2025Sport Huancayo 1–1 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 29 March 2025Universitario 3–1 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 11 August 2024Sport Huancayo 1–1 UniversitarioPrimera División
  • 2 March 2024Universitario 2–0 Sport HuancayoPrimera División
  • 29 October 2023Universitario 2–0 Sport HuancayoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Sport Huancayo and Universitario

Sport Huancayo

GoalsAssists

  • Javier Andrés Sanguinetti105

Universitario

GoalsAssists

  • A. Valera182
  • G. Lapadula94

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universitario (second, with Sport Huancayo eighth), while our numbers lean to Sport Huancayo. Sport Huancayo rate 0.67 in attack and 1.61 in defence, Universitario 0.80 and 1.57 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

How the call on Sport Huancayo v Universitario has moved

First published on 31 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 8 updates it reads 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Sport Huancayo's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Sport Huancayo win40%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Universitario win34%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sport Huancayo Universitario
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.8
1.61 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57
1.71 Model expected goals (this match) 1.55

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sport Huancayo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sport Huancayo against 1.55 for Universitario. Sport Huancayo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.57 for Universitario.

Sport Huancayo carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.52 for Universitario. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Sport Huancayo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sport Huancayo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Sport Huancayo's ratings take away 4 points and Universitario's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Sport Huancayo's ratings42%−4
  5. Universitario's ratings40%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sport HuancayoUniversitario
33Matches33
15W 5D 13LRecord17W 10D 6L
48 1.5 per gameGoals scored59 1.8 per game
49 1.5 per gameGoals conceded39 1.2 per game
7 of 33Clean sheets9 of 33
5 of 33Failed to score6 of 33
9 of 10Penalties scored7 of 8
84 2.5 per gameYellow cards55 1.7 per game
11Red cards4
4-2-3-1 16×Usual shape3-1-4-2 10×

Sport Huancayo at home · Universitario away

16Played16
10W 3D 3LRecord7W 5D 4L
28–17Goals for – against27–23
3 of 16Clean sheets3 of 16

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Sport Huancayo 33, Universitario 33.

Sport Huancayo scored 57145811
Universitario conceded 7557511

Sport Huancayo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Universitario have let in 5 there.

Universitario scored 214691115
Sport Huancayo conceded 9467118

Universitario score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Sport Huancayo have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.