Sporting Cristal
vs
Cienciano
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Cristal 2–1 Cienciano
The model makes it 55% Sporting Cristal, 23% draw, 22% Cienciano — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sporting Cristal 2.24, Cienciano 1.23.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sporting Cristal's rating is built from 73 Primera División (Peru) matches and Cienciano's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sporting Cristal are 5th on 51 points from 33 games; Cienciano are 7th on 50 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to ADT.
- Cienciano have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Sport Huancayo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Cienciano 3–2 Sporting Cristal.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Cristal at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
Primera División
- D1-1away to ADT7 November 2026
- W5-0FC Cajamarca2 November 2026
- W3-2Alianza Lima29 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cusco24 October 2026
- W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026
Cienciano
Primera División
- L1-2Sport Huancayo8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Alianza Lima4 November 2026
- W3-0Atletico Grau29 October 2026
- L1-3away to Comerciantes Unidos25 October 2026
- W1-0UTC Cajamarca18 October 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Cristal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Cristal had three goals or more.
- Cienciano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 48 | +15 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 46 | +8 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
- 31 May 2026Cienciano 3–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 7 November 2025Sporting Cristal 2–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 5 July 2025Cienciano 1–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 27 July 2024Sporting Cristal 5–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 10 February 2024Cienciano 2–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 23 October 2023Cienciano 1–0 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos134
- L. Iberico110
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés184
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Sporting Cristal v Cienciano has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 52% / 24% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 55% / 23% / 22%: the biggest move is Sporting Cristal's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sporting Cristal win55%▲ +3
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Cienciano win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Cristal the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Sporting Cristal against 1.23 for Cienciano. Sporting Cristal's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.68 for Cienciano.
How the model reaches 55% for Sporting Cristal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting Cristal to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Sporting Cristal's ratings add 6 points and Cienciano's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Sporting Cristal's ratings52%+6
- Cienciano's ratings55%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sporting Cristal at home · Cienciano away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sporting Cristal 33, Cienciano 33.
Sporting Cristal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Cienciano have let in 9 there.
Cienciano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Sporting Cristal have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.