Alianza Lima
vs
FC Cajamarca
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Lima 2–0 FC Cajamarca
The model makes it 69% Alianza Lima, 19% draw, 12% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 2.57, FC Cajamarca 0.80.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Alianza Lima's rating is built from 70 Primera División (Peru) matches and FC Cajamarca's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Alianza Lima are top on 69 points from 33 games; FC Cajamarca are 17th on 29 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Lima have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas.
- FC Cajamarca have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Alianza Atletico.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
Has the model earned this number?
Alianza Lima at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
Primera División
- D1-1away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas8 November 2026
- W1-0Cienciano4 November 2026
- L2-3away to Sporting Cristal29 October 2026
- W1-0away to UCV Moquegua25 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026
FC Cajamarca
Primera División
- W2-0Alianza Atletico7 November 2026
- L0-5away to Sporting Cristal2 November 2026
- L1-3UTC Cajamarca28 October 2026
- L2-4away to Sport Boys25 October 2026
- L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Lima scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 69 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Cajamarca
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 86% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca
- 31 May 2026FC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Lima and FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo216
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- M. Arrasco85
- B. Palacios84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alianza Lima a 100% chance of the title and FC Cajamarca 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Alianza Lima against 0.80 for FC Cajamarca. Alianza Lima's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.36 for FC Cajamarca.
How the model reaches 69% for Alianza Lima to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alianza Lima to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Alianza Lima's ratings add 10 points and FC Cajamarca's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Alianza Lima's ratings55%+10
- FC Cajamarca's ratings69%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Alianza Lima at home · FC Cajamarca away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Lima 33, FC Cajamarca 33.
Alianza Lima score most often in the 31–45 minute window (15 goals); FC Cajamarca have let in 10 there.
FC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.