Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Bayer Leverkusen, 22% draw, 25% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 17Lucas VázquezM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 8R. AndrichM
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 42M. CulbreathM
- 39K. DoganayM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 15T. OermannD
- 10M. TillmanM
- 37D. BuckF
- 41D. SeimenG
- 14L. JaquezD
- 24J. ChabotD
- 3R. HendriksD
- 18J. LewelingM
- 16A. KarazorM
- 21G. PrömelM
- 10C. FührichM
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 26D. UndavF
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 1F. BredlowG
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 7M. MittelstädtD
- 28N. NarteyM
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 47Y. SpaltD
- 8Tiago TomásF
- 22L. AssignonD
- 2A. Al DakhilD
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
- L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim25 October 2026
- W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
- L2-3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hamburger SV17 October 2026
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart have met 7 times in the records we hold, VfB Stuttgart has won 3 of them to Bayer Leverkusen's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
VfB Stuttgart won the last one 4–2 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 30 goals, an average of 4.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 2–4 VfB Stuttgart - 9 May 2026
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer Leverkusen - 10 Jan 2026
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 1–4 VfB Stuttgart - 16 Mar 2025
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen - 1 Nov 2024
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 0–0 VfB Stuttgart - 17 Aug 2024
Super CupBayer Leverkusen 2–2 VfB Stuttgart - 27 Apr 2024
BundesligaBayer Leverkusen 2–2 VfB Stuttgart
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bayer Leverkusen's attack rates 17% above VfB Stuttgart's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.33 | 0.94 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.14 | 0.93 |
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
VfB Stuttgart
GoalsAssists
- E. Demirović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfB Stuttgart won 4–2 at Bayer Leverkusen. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayer Leverkusen at 53% and given a win for VfB Stuttgart 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ermedin Demirović 14' for VfB Stuttgart, Jamie Leweling 22' for VfB Stuttgart, Patrik Schick 28' for Bayer Leverkusen, Bilal El Khannouss 51' for VfB Stuttgart, Ermedin Demirović 65' for VfB Stuttgart, Ibrahim Maza 79' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 2.07–2.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bayer Leverkusen a 61.6% chance to finish in the top four: 65.9% after a win, 60.3% after a draw, 53.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.9%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.
For VfB Stuttgart the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.5% going in: 11.7% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 6.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.7%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.