Wrexham vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 1-2 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Wrexham, 26% draw, 21% Birmingham — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Wrexham at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs Birmingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Anthony PattersonG
- 26Zak VynerD
- 5Dominic HyamD
- 2Callum DoyleD
- 30Daniel ImrayM
- 8Ben WhitemanM
- 27Lewis O'BrienM
- 3Jacques EkomiéM
- 20Oliver RathboneF
- 33Nathan BroadheadF
- 19Kieffer MooreF
- 28Sam SmithF
- 12Issa KaboréD
- 47Ryan LongmanM
- 10Josh WindassM
- 11Bailey CadamarteriF
- 21Danny WardG
- 24Dan ScarrD
- 4Max CleworthD
- 37Matty JamesM
- 1James BeadleG
- 26Bright Osayi-SamuelD
- 5Phil NeumannD
- 4Christoph KlarerD
- 20Alex CochraneD
- 24Tomoki IwataM
- 14Jhon SolísM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 10Demarai GrayM
- 28Jay StansfieldM
- 9August PriskeF
- 16Patrick RobertsM
- 8Seung Ho PaikM
- 32Luis VázquezF
- 2Ethan LairdD
- 23Dael FryD
- 21Ryan AllsopG
- 25Kristoffer LundD
- 11Scott WrightF
- 33Marvin DuckschF
Form going into Wrexham vs Birmingham
Wrexham
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Watford22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026
Birmingham
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Bristol City22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Utd15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Birmingham
- 12 April 2026Birmingham 2–0 WrexhamChampionship
- 3 October 2025Wrexham 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 23 January 2025Wrexham 1–1 BirminghamLeague One
- 16 September 2024Birmingham 3–1 WrexhamLeague One
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Birmingham
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Birmingham won 2–1 at Wrexham. The model had leaned towards a win for Wrexham at 53% and given a win for Birmingham 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Phil Neumann 13' for Birmingham, Callum Doyle 54' for Wrexham, Phil Neumann 63' for Birmingham. On expected goals it finished 1.42–1.85.