Wrexham vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 1-2 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Wrexham, 26% draw, 21% Birmingham — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wrexham at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs Birmingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Anthony PattersonG
- 26Zak VynerD
- 5Dominic HyamD
- 2Callum DoyleD
- 30Daniel ImrayM
- 8Ben WhitemanM
- 27Lewis O'BrienM
- 3Jacques EkomiéM
- 20Oliver RathboneF
- 33Nathan BroadheadF
- 19Kieffer MooreF
- 28Sam SmithF
- 12Issa KaboréD
- 47Ryan LongmanM
- 10Josh WindassM
- 11Bailey CadamarteriF
- 21Danny WardG
- 24Dan ScarrD
- 4Max CleworthD
- 37Matty JamesM
- 1James BeadleG
- 26Bright Osayi-SamuelD
- 5Phil NeumannD
- 4Christoph KlarerD
- 20Alex CochraneD
- 24Tomoki IwataM
- 14Jhon SolísM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 10Demarai GrayM
- 28Jay StansfieldM
- 9August PriskeF
- 16Patrick RobertsM
- 8Seung Ho PaikM
- 32Luis VázquezF
- 2Ethan LairdD
- 23Dael FryD
- 21Ryan AllsopG
- 25Kristoffer LundD
- 11Scott WrightF
- 33Marvin DuckschF
Form going into Wrexham vs Birmingham
Wrexham
- D1-1Watford22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff17 August 2026
Birmingham
- D2-2Bristol City22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Utd15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Birmingham
- 28 August 2026Wrexham 1–2 BirminghamChampionship
- 12 April 2026Birmingham 2–0 WrexhamChampionship
- 3 October 2025Wrexham 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 23 January 2025Wrexham 1–1 BirminghamLeague One
- 16 September 2024Birmingham 3–1 WrexhamLeague One