Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Werder Bremen 2-0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Werder Bremen, 24% draw, 36% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Werder Bremen at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 15L. ReisM
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 8M. WeiserM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 18E. DinkçiF
- 26C. IttenF
- 14S. LynenM
- 11J. NjinmahF
- 19K. QuetantF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 3O. WójcikD
- 1O. BaumannG
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 39M. RotsD
- 29Natnael AbrahaM
- 27A. KramarićM
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 10A. HložekF
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 47V. LässigD
- 19T. LemperleF
- 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
- 37L. PhilippG
- 55Y. B. Zor MuhammedF
- 41O. HenckeM
- 52K. GjasulaM
- 46J. FieldsF
- 13BernardoD
Form going into Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- W3-2away to FSV Mainz 0524 October 2026
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
- W3-0Bayer Leverkusen25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Borussia Mönchengladbach18 October 2026
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen have met 7 times in the records we hold, 1899 Hoffenheim has won 5 of them to Werder Bremen's 2.
The record
Werder Bremen won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 |
| Werder Bremen | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
BundesligaWerder Bremen 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim - 9 May 2026
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen - 27 Jan 2026
BundesligaWerder Bremen 0–2 1899 Hoffenheim - 16 Feb 2025
BundesligaWerder Bremen 1–3 1899 Hoffenheim - 29 Sep 2024
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 3–4 Werder Bremen - 3 Mar 2024
Bundesliga1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Werder Bremen - 7 Oct 2023
BundesligaWerder Bremen 2–3 1899 Hoffenheim
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rates 16% above Werder Bremen's, and Werder Bremen concede 13% fewer than 1899 Hoffenheim. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| Werder Bremen | 0.92 | 0.98 |
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
1899 Hoffenheim
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Werder Bremen beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0. The model had made a win for Werder Bremen its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Niclas Füllkrug 57' for Werder Bremen, Eren Dinkci 82' for Werder Bremen. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.15.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Werder Bremen a 6.1% chance to finish in the top four: 7.8% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.8%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
For 1899 Hoffenheim the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.8% going in: 7.5% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.2%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Werder Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 24% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 24% / 36%: the biggest move is Werder Bremen's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Werder Bremen win40%▼ −3
- Draw24%=
- 1899 Hoffenheim win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.