FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Schalke 04 0-2 RB Leipzig.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% FC Schalke 04, 28% draw, 50% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
RB Leipzig at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. KariusG
- 5T. BeckerD
- 25N. KatićD
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 13S. TanakaM
- 43M. AyhanM
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 20J. AdamuM
- 19K. KaramanM
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 29J. Dina EbimbeM
- 10E. DžekoF
- 40E. GashiM
- 11B. LasmeF
- 21D. LjubičićM
- 22K. MüllerG
- 35Jean-Paul N'DiayeF
- 27F. PorathM
- 36Johannes Simon SiebekingG
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 10B. GrudaM
- 20R. ReitzM
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 7A. NusaM
- 40RômuloF
- 14C. BaumgartnerM
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 27T. GomisF
- 2A. KonéD
- 28C. NkunkuF
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 13N. SeiwaldM
- 17R. BakuD
- 11J. BakayokoF
Form going into FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga
- D0-0away to 1. FC Köln24 October 2026
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga
- W4-0SV Elversberg24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Bayern München17 October 2026
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig have met 7 times in the records we hold, RB Leipzig has won 6 of them to FC Schalke 04's 1.
The record
RB Leipzig won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 25 |
| RB Leipzig | 6 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 31 goals, an average of 4.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–2 RB Leipzig - 27 May 2023
BundesligaRB Leipzig 4–2 FC Schalke 04 - 24 Jan 2023
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 1–6 RB Leipzig - 6 Feb 2021
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–3 RB Leipzig - 3 Oct 2020
BundesligaRB Leipzig 4–0 FC Schalke 04 - 22 Feb 2020
BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–5 RB Leipzig - 28 Sep 2019
BundesligaRB Leipzig 1–3 FC Schalke 04
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, RB Leipzig's attack rates 167% above FC Schalke 04's, and FC Schalke 04 concede 5% fewer than RB Leipzig. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| RB Leipzig | 1.47 | 0.85 |
Leading scorers: FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig
FC Schalke 04
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku52
- Rômulo50
- A. Nusa47
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
RB Leipzig won 2–0 at FC Schalke 04. The model had made a win for RB Leipzig its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Antonio Nusa (penalty) 37' for RB Leipzig, Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz 78' for RB Leipzig. On expected goals it finished 0.58–3.30.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Schalke 04 a 20.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 14.1% after a win, 20.0% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.5%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
For RB Leipzig the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.2% going in: 66.6% after a win, 59.5% after a draw, 54.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.6%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 24% / 27% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 22% / 28% / 50%: the biggest move is FC Schalke 04's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FC Schalke 04 win22%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- RB Leipzig win50%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.