Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 29% draw, 31% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33D. BatzG
- 14D. HashiokaD
- 16P. SanderD
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 29J. ScallyM
- 47Z. UnoM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 26L. UllrichM
- 25R. HackM
- 36W. MohyaM
- 18S. MachinoF
- 22Y. KonoplyaD
- 23J. OlschowskyG
- 7K. StögerM
- 19N. KühnF
- 34M. NguefackM
- 3I. LidbergF
- 17J. CastropM
- 20D. HeroldD
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 17L. CurdaM
- 6T. BaackM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 18M. PieringerF
- 30S. MarinoF
- 29C. LippmannD
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
- 27S. TiggesF
- 28L. UlrichM
- 38D. ZeitlerF
- 20F. GötzeD
- 2Ruben MüllerD
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- W3-2away to VfB Stuttgart23 October 2026
- L1-21899 Hoffenheim18 October 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- W1-0Hamburger SV24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 have met 7 times in the records we hold, Borussia Mönchengladbach has won 5 of them to SC Paderborn 07's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Borussia Mönchengladbach on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC Paderborn 07 - 17 Jul 2021
Friendlies ClubsSC Paderborn 07 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 22 Aug 2020
Friendlies ClubsBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 SC Paderborn 07 - 22 Aug 2020
Friendlies ClubsSC Paderborn 07 0–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 20 Jun 2020
BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 1–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 18 Dec 2019
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 SC Paderborn 07 - 1 Mar 2015
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 SC Paderborn 07
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rates 30% above SC Paderborn 07's, and SC Paderborn 07 concede 29% fewer than Borussia Mönchengladbach. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
The result against the call
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.04.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 36.4% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 50.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.3%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For SC Paderborn 07 the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 19.3% going in: 12.8% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 23.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.1%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.