FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Augsburg, 24% draw, 41% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.86, 4.17 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
SC Freiburg at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. DahmenG
- 14Y. KeitelD
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 30A. KadeM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
- 38Loris HusicM
- 10M. KömürM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 37T. SchnitzerM
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 27M. WolfD
- 1M. BackhausG
- 17L. KüblerD
- 28M. GinterD
- 3P. LienhartD
- 33J. MakengoD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 19J. BesteM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 9L. HölerF
- 42K. GotoF
- 32V. GrifoM
- 30C. GünterD
- 24J. HuthG
- 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
- 5A. JungD
- 31I. MatanovićF
- 6P. OsterhageM
- 37M. RosenfelderD
Form going into FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- D1-1Union Berlin24 October 2026
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
- L1-3Bayern München25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bayer Leverkusen18 October 2026
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg have met 7 times in the records we hold, SC Freiburg has won 3 of them to FC Augsburg's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
SC Freiburg won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–2 SC Freiburg - 18 Jan 2026
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–2 SC Freiburg - 23 Aug 2025
BundesligaSC Freiburg 1–3 FC Augsburg - 2 Mar 2025
BundesligaFC Augsburg 0–0 SC Freiburg - 19 Oct 2024
BundesligaSC Freiburg 3–1 FC Augsburg - 25 Feb 2024
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–1 SC Freiburg - 1 Oct 2023
BundesligaSC Freiburg 2–0 FC Augsburg
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, SC Freiburg's attack rates 11% above FC Augsburg's, and SC Freiburg concede 28% fewer than FC Augsburg. That gives SC Freiburg the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| SC Freiburg | 1.19 | 0.83 |
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki50
- I. Matanović41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SC Freiburg won 2–1 at FC Augsburg. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for SC Freiburg at 41%. The goals: Michael Gregoritsch 18' for FC Augsburg, Igor Matanović 65' for SC Freiburg, Cyriaque Irié 85' for SC Freiburg. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.45.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Augsburg a 7.8% chance to finish in the top four: 10.0% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
For SC Freiburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.2% going in: 46.7% after a win, 40.5% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.7%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.