Udinese vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Udinese 2-5 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 14% Udinese, 23% draw, 63% AS Roma — fair odds of 7.14, 4.35 and 1.59.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Udinese vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 27C. KabaseleD
- 16M. PalmaD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 38L. MillerM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 10N. ZanioloM
- 32J. EkkelenkampM
- 9K. DavisF
- 13N. BertolaD
- 30G. ChakvetadzeM
- 20J. ArizalaM
- 77E. EbosseD
- 46Unai GómezM
- 91L. JovanoviÄF
- 4S. LovrićM
- 41B. MrozekG
- 93D. PadelliG
- 95P. GolliniG
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 20N. MolinaM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 43WesleyM
- 18M. SouléM
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 14D. MalenF
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 78Mandjou CamaraF
- 9S. CastroF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 63Alessandro Di NunzioM
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 77E. LulliD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 61N. PisilliM
Form going into Udinese vs AS Roma
Udinese
Serie A
- D0-0away to Parma28 October 2026
- L0-2AC Milan25 October 2026
- L0-3Lecce18 October 2026
AS Roma
Serie A
- W4-2Cagliari27 October 2026
- D3-3away to Napoli24 October 2026
- W2-0Genoa17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Udinese
AS Roma and Udinese have met 7 times in the records we hold, AS Roma has won 6 of them to Udinese's 1.
The record
AS Roma won the last one 5–2 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 |
| Udinese | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 17 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Serie AUdinese 2–5 AS Roma - 2 Feb 2026
Serie AUdinese 1–0 AS Roma - 9 Nov 2025
Serie AAS Roma 2–0 Udinese - 26 Jan 2025
Serie AUdinese 1–2 AS Roma - 22 Sep 2024
Serie AAS Roma 3–0 Udinese - 25 Apr 2024
Serie AUdinese 1–2 AS Roma - 26 Nov 2023
Serie AAS Roma 3–1 Udinese
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AS Roma's attack rates 97% above Udinese's, and AS Roma concede 42% fewer than Udinese. That gives AS Roma the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Udinese and AS Roma
Udinese
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Roma won 5–2 at Udinese. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Bryan Cristante 10' for AS Roma, Rodrigo Mora 31' for AS Roma, Donyell Malen 33' for AS Roma, Evan Ndicka 37' for AS Roma, Nicolo Zaniolo 50' for Udinese, Matteo Palma 78' for Udinese, Daniele Ghilardi 90+2' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 1.89–2.90.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Udinese a 38.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.3% after a win, 36.2% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.5%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
For AS Roma the question was the chance to win the league, 27.3% going in: 29.2% after a win, 24.5% after a draw, 20.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.2%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Udinese v AS Roma has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 17% / 24% / 59% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 14% / 23% / 63%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Udinese win14%▼ −3
- Draw23%▼ −1
- AS Roma win63%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.