Inter vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Inter 2-1 Fiorentina.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Inter, 19% draw, 14% Fiorentina — fair odds of 1.49, 5.26 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Fiorentina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 17A. DioufM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 94F. EspositoF
- 8P. SučićM
- 99D. SpenceD
- 5A. StankovićM
- 48M. MosconiF
- 14A. BonnyF
- 46L. BovioD
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 32F. DimarcoD
- 51L. JakirovićD
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 5M. PongračićD
- 21ValdeD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25A. NjieF
- 23BetoF
- 33VieryD
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 2DodôD
- 29W. GnontoF
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 28PoteM
Form going into Inter vs Fiorentina
Inter
Serie A
- W3-1away to Bologna17 October 2026
Fiorentina
Serie A
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Inter
Fiorentina and Inter have met 7 times in the records we hold, Inter has won 5 of them to Fiorentina's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Inter won the last one 2–1 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| Inter | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Serie AInter 2–1 Fiorentina - 22 Mar 2026
Serie AFiorentina 1–1 Inter - 29 Oct 2025
Serie AInter 3–0 Fiorentina - 10 Feb 2025
Serie AInter 2–1 Fiorentina - 6 Feb 2025
Serie AFiorentina 3–0 Inter - 28 Jan 2024
Serie AFiorentina 0–1 Inter - 3 Sep 2023
Serie AInter 4–0 Fiorentina
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Inter's attack rates 53% above Fiorentina's, and Inter concede 30% fewer than Fiorentina. That gives Inter the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| Inter | 1.79 | 0.73 |
Leading scorers: Inter and Fiorentina
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram62
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter beat Fiorentina 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Inter at 67%. The goals: Álex Jiménez 65' for Fiorentina, Marcus Thuram 90+1' for Inter, Piotr Zieliński (penalty) 90+7' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 2.94–0.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter a 50.4% chance to win the league: 52.4% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 41.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Fiorentina the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 20.0% going in: 11.6% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 21.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.4%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Inter v Fiorentina has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 65% / 20% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 67% / 19% / 14%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Inter win67%▲ +2
- Draw19%▼ −1
- Fiorentina win14%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.