Willem II vs Cambuur Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Willem II 1-6 Cambuur.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Willem II, 25% draw, 43% Cambuur — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Cambuur at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Willem II vs Cambuur
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. DidillonG
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 6C. TwigtM
- 52T. VilhenaM
- 7J. SloryM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 32V. van CrooijM
- 9D. HaenF
- 18Anass ZarroukM
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 10J. SchuurmanM
- 17O. MartinF
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 26M. DelangheG
- 11A. CulumF
- 2A. CiranniD
- 8K. BoogaardM
- 1T. JansenG
- 16R. MuldersD
- 4I. BaoufD
- 14B. van DuijlD
- 28M. CostarelliD
- 33M. MaertensM
- 8N. SourenM
- 30J. ÇekaM
- 10R. El ArguiouiM
- 11I. HamacheM
- 13N. BinderF
- 9S. VinkF
- 18Wiebe van der HeideM
- 17Ethan ApkakouM
- 3J. BerkhoutD
- 7S. BouhoudaneF
- 29Iwan HenstraF
- 23L. JettenD
- 22L. PlogmannG
- 24M. KalisvaartG
Form going into Willem II vs Cambuur
Willem II
Eredivisie
- L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
Cambuur
Eredivisie
- D2-2AZ Alkmaar18 October 2026
- W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Willem II
Cambuur and Willem II have met 6 times in the records we hold, Cambuur has won 3 of them to Willem II's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Cambuur won the last one 6–1 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 5 |
| Willem II | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
EredivisieWillem II 1–6 Cambuur - 12 Dec 2025
Eerste DivisieWillem II 0–1 Cambuur - 6 Sep 2025
Eerste DivisieCambuur 2–2 Willem II - 2 Feb 2024
Eerste DivisieWillem II 1–1 Cambuur - 17 Sep 2023
Eerste DivisieCambuur 1–0 Willem II - 11 May 2022
EredivisieCambuur 1–1 Willem II
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cambuur's attack rates 87% above Willem II's, and Cambuur concede 29% fewer than Willem II. That gives Cambuur the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Willem II and Cambuur
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui62
- I. Hamache53
- N. Binder52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cambuur won 6–1 at Willem II. The model had made a win for Cambuur its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nicolas Binder 9' for Cambuur, Ilyes Hamache 13' for Cambuur, Ismaël Baouf 18' for Cambuur, Nicolas Binder 58' for Cambuur, Rafik El Arguioui 62' for Cambuur, Anass Zarrouk 82' for Willem II, Jason Ceka 89' for Cambuur. On expected goals it finished 1.08–1.94.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Willem II a 93.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 91.2% after a win, 93.7% after a draw, 95.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For Cambuur the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.4% going in: 19.6% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.6%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Willem II v Cambuur has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 36% / 24% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 25% / 43%: the biggest move is Willem II's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Willem II win32%▼ −4
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Cambuur win43%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.